Before the Democratic convention in Philadelphia two weeks ago, some Democrats were concerned that whatever magic Hillary Clinton had managed to hang on to up until that point had vanished with the nomination of Donald Trump. Little under a week and a half since Clinton formally accepted her party’s nomination, however, projections show the party likely has little to worry about.
Over the course of Monday morning and early afternoon, polls and projections began showing some worrisome results for Trump: he seemed to have lost his edge in two states that had been reliably Republican in recent cycles. Here are the states in which Clinton looks increasingly competitive but where President Barack Obama lost handily in his 2012 reelection campaign against former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.
Voters in Georgia were shown to be favoring Clinton in both a recently released Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll and projections from FiveThirtyEight, an online blog that successfully predicted the vote-winner in all 50 states in 2012. Clinton is now given a 55.3 percent chance of winning the state and Trump is given 44.7 percent chance, according to FiveThirtyEight forecasts. In the Journal-Constitution poll, Clinton was beating Trump 44 percent to 40 percent. The most recent poll before that had the two candidates tied, according to Real Clear Politics.
Obama lost the state to Romney 45.5 percent to 53.4 percent in 2012. The last time a Democrat won the state was in 1992, when Clinton’s husband, former President Bill Clinton, won his ticket to the White House.
As Monday progressed, Arizona followed Georgia’s lead, tilting ever so slightly in Clinton’s favor on the FiveThirtyEight forecasts. While the latest polls show Trump with a slight, if narrowing, lead in the state, Clinton now has a 52.7 percent chance of winning Arizona, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Romney beat Obama 54.2 percent to 45.1 percent in 2012. Clinton’s husband was also the last Democrat to carry Arizona, back in 1996.
That Clinton is leading in North Carolina isn’t new, but the state is one of others which Obama lost. Now, Clinton seems to have a strong chance at winning it. FiveThirtyEight is giving her a 71.6 percent chance of winning there against Trump’s 28.3 percent chance. Still, polls there have fluctuated quite a bit, with the past four polls split between the candidates. Clinton, when averaging recent polls, is up by half a percent.
Obama lost in North Carolina by a much closer margin, Romney had 50.6 percent compared to Obama’s 48.4 percent. Obama also won the state in 2008.