:: Australian Dollar: The Aussie dollar held on to support around 0.8125 during Friday's local trading day and rebounded strongly to post an overnight high of 0.8185. The rally came on the back of better than expected European data and continued weakness in the Greenback however the move was tempered somewhat by concerns in the UK economy and the effects on the global economic recovery. Despite a sell off from its highs back to 0.8135 better than expected U.S consumer confidence as measured by the University of Michigan caused a late rally to 0.8165. In early morning trade on thin volumes the AUD has opened stronger pressing against Friday's high of 0.8185 as the local equities market begins its reporting season this week.
- We expect a range today in the AUD/USD rate of 0.8140 to 0.8240
:: Great Britain Pound: Investors had been keenly anticipating Friday's release of second quarter UK Gross Domestic Product data, the measure of economic growth with economists expecting further decline of around 0.3% for the quarter. The shock -0.8% drop for the quarter took the annual decline to -5.6% the largest decline since records began in 1955 to what is being widely referred to in the media as depression type levels. The GBP/USD fell almost 1% shortly after the release collapsing from 1.6540 to a low of 1.6390 with U.K equity markets seemingly undeterred by the news. This morning sees the Pound Sterling exchanging at around 1.6440 against the Greenback and 2.0085 Aussie.
- We expect a range today in the GBP/AUD rate of 1.9920 to 2.0120
:: New Zealand Dollar: The Kiwi dollar rallied during Friday's European session as positive sentiment surrounding the global economy continued to emanate on offshore investment markets. The NZD/USD twice tested 0.6585 and failed on both occasions to open this morning at 0.6565 ahead of what is shaping as a massive week for New Zealand economic data. The reporting kicks off with Tuesdays Trade Balance followed by Wednesday's Building Permits and Business Confidence with the most anticipated being Thursdays RBNZ meeting and interest rate decision.
- We expect a range today in the NZD/USD rate of 0.6525 to 0.6600
:: Majors: A spate of positive reports out of Europe on Friday helped EUR/USD break above what had been stubborn resistance at 1.4170 during the Asian trading day. The IFO institutes surveys on the German Business Climate, Current Assessment and Expectations all came in above market estimates along with higher than forecast PMI for the broader European region. The positive news helped the Euro rise to an eventual high at 1.4250 before settling marginally lower to finish the weeks trade around 1.4215. In U.S data the University of Michigan's forecast for consumer confidence in July increased from 64.6 to 66.0, marginally higher than economist predictions of a rise to 65.0. U.S equity markets finished relatively flat after experiencing a stellar run throughout the week that saw the Dow Jones close above the psychological 9,000 mark. Against the Japanese Yen the Greenback rebounded slightly from Asian lows of 94.60 to open this morning at 94.80 ahead of this week's important Japanese Retail Trade, Business Confidence, Industrial Production and Jobless rate data; all of which will give the market a clearer indication of the economic landscape in the country and if the positive signs referred to by the BoJ in recent weeks are a reality.
:: Data Releases:
- AUD: No Data Expected today
- NZD: No Data Expected today
- USD: Jun New Home Sales & Jul Dallas Fed Manufacturing
- GBP: Jul Nationwide House Prices
- EUR: Aug German GfK Consumer Confidence
- JPY: Jun Corporate Service Price
- CAD: No Data Expected today