The U.S. Congress on Friday appeared to be moving toward a deal to raise the debt ceiling, but the solution currently being discussed is far from perfect. “The biggest problem is that the Republican proposal would not end the federal government shutdown and it would only raise the debt ceiling by enough to last six weeks,” Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note to clients.
During those six weeks, the Obama administration and the congressional Republicans would need to agree to reopen the government, implement some deficit-reduction measures and raise the debt ceiling by enough to last beyond 2014. But there is a risk that talks will become gridlocked and the markets will be worrying about the risk of default again come late November, Dales noted.
After all, a similar deal was struck when the debt ceiling was raised in mid-2011 and a “super committee” was asked to decide how to cut the deficit. But that committee was far from super and its failure to agree on anything triggered the crude sequestration spending cuts this year, as Dales pointed out. History could easily repeat itself.
The U.S. government partial shutdown, entering its 12th day, is already having impacts confidence and other survey measures.
The Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index shed 2.3 points in mid-October to 75.2. Consumers’ expectations for the economy over the coming year fell 15 points. Initial jobless claims jumped by 66,000 in the week ended Oct. 5 -- 15,000 of those new unemployment claims were filed by furloughed federal contractors who, unlike furloughed government employees, cannot receive back pay once the shutdown ends.
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Economic data releases remain light in the coming week as U.S. government-supplied data will generally not be released until the shutdown is over. While the official data are delayed, private-sector data continue to be released. Investors should keep a close eye on regional manufacturing surveys and the homebuilder survey.
Meanwhile, there are numerous speeches by Federal Reserve representatives scheduled for the coming week, including those by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke on Monday and several other voters on the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, on other days. Uncertainty emanating from Washington, coupled with a lack of data releases, has reduced the likelihood of a tapering of Fed asset purchases this year, according to Barclays.
Developments in Europe this week were overshadowed by the ongoing saga of the U.S. government shutdown and the associated concerns over the looming debt ceiling and a possible government default.
Washington’s shutdown drama is “unlikely to have major direct effects on the European economy and financial markets provided that it is resolved fairly quickly,” said Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics. “Nonetheless, the episode has served as a timely reminder that euro-zone policymakers cannot necessarily rely on a smooth and seamless recovery in the global economy to pull the region further out of recession,” Loynes said.
Economic data in Europe next week could have a slightly more sober tone after the better news of recent weeks. Meanwhile, the Irish budget on Tuesday will show deficit-reduction plans on track. But Ireland may still need support to exit its bailout program this year.
A range of evidence suggests the U.K.’s economy is growing notably faster than the roughly 2.5 percent annualized pace suggested by official data. Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists estimate the unemployment rate could tick down to 7.6 percent with growth in the consumer price index easing to 2.5 percent.
It’s a holiday-shortened and unusually quiet week for Japanese data, although the markets will be focused in any event on the U.S. debt-ceiling debate given the potential impact on the yen. The final estimate of August industrial production on Tuesday is the only noteworthy release, according to Marcel Thieliant, economist at Capital Economics.
Investors will get an important batch of Chinese statistics, which will shed light on economic performance during the third quarter. The world’s second-largest economy’s growth has bottomed out after a slowdown in the first half of this year, but the momentum of the rebound that started in July is waning.
(Read More: China September Economic Data Preview.)
Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed confidence in the country’s near-term growth outlook and ongoing economic transformation at the recently concluded Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, or APEC, summit.
Xi reiterated that growth has been within a “reasonable and expected range,” and that slower growth is an intended result of the government’s efforts to rebalance and upgrade the economy. He noted “steady improvements” in the quality and efficiency of economic growth. Nevertheless, he acknowledged challenges from overcapacity, local government debt, shadow banking and external shocks.
Elsewhere, Singapore will release the advance estimate of its third-quarter gross domestic product, and Thailand has a scheduled monetary-policy meeting on Wednesday.
Below are entries on the economic calendar Oct. 14-18. All listed times are EDT.
Note: Asterisks indicate releases from agencies directly or indirectly affected by the partial government shutdown, which we do not expect to come out on schedule, should the shutdown persist.
Some markets will be closed in observance of Columbus Day.
9 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke (a voter on the FOMC) speaks via prerecorded video on “Celebrating 20 Years of Mexican Central Bank Independence” before the Bank of Mexico “Central Bank Independence -- Progress and Challenges” conference in Mexico City.
Norway -- Government presents 2014 budget.
Russia -- One-week auction rate.
Euro zone -- Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg.
Euro zone -- European Central Bank Executive Board Member Benoit Coeure speaks on “Risk Taking in Financial Institutions, Regulation and the Real Economy” in Paris.
Euro zone -- ECB Executive Board Member Yves Mersch speaks at the introductory event of the bank’s European Cultural Days 2013 in Frankfurt.
Singapore -- Monetary-policy statement.
Singapore -- Q3 GDP, advance estimate.
Euro zone -- August industrial production.
India -- September CPI.
8:30 a.m. -- The October Empire State manufacturing survey will probably show a print of 8.0, an increase from the print of 6.3 seen in September.
10 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley (a voter on the FOMC) speaks on unconventional monetary policy at the Mexican Central Bank’s conference in Mexico City.
7:15 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher (a nonvoter on the FOMC this year) speaks on the U.S. economic outlook and monetary policy at New York University.
Ireland -- Government presents 2014 budget.
Australia -- Reserve Bank of Australia board minutes.
European Union -- The informal meeting of ministers for Economic and Financial Affairs, or Ecofin, in Luxembourg.
Greece -- Prime Minister Antonis Samaras speaks on “The Necessity of Europe” before the European Parliament in Brussels.
Euro zone -- ECB Executive Board Member Peter Praet speaks on “Economic Prospects in an Uncertain Environment” in Munich.
French -- September harmonized index of consumer prices, CPI.
Euro zone -- ZEW economic-sentiment index for October.
Germany -- ZEW economic-expectations index for October.
*8:30 a.m. -- Both headline and core consumer prices likely rose by 0.2 percent month-on-month in September. This would push the annual rate of CPI inflation down to 1.2 percent from 1.5 percent. The core rate would remain at 1.8 percent.
10 a.m. -- The National Association of Home Builders, or NAHB, housing index is expected to hold at 58 in October.
2 p.m. -- Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book summary of current economic conditions.
6:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George (a voter on the FOMC this year) speaks in Oklahoma City at an event to unveil an exhibit recognizing the role of U.S. Sen. Robert Owen of Oklahoma in the founding of the Federal Reserve System.
6:45 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher (a nonvoter on the FOMC this year) participates in a “Break Up the Big Banks” discussion before the Intelligence Squared U.S. Debate in New York.
Thailand -- Benchmark interest rate.
Euro zone -- ECB Executive Board Member Yves Mersch speaks at Miami University in Luxembourg.
Euro zone -- ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at the grand-opening event of the European Cultural Days 2013 in Frankfurt.
Euro zone -- August trade balance.
8 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher (a nonvoter on the FOMC this year) speaks on U.S. monetary policy before the Economic Club of New York.
8:30 a.m. -- Economists expect initial jobless claims to improve substantially, at 340,000 for the week ending Oct. 12, down from 374,000 for the prior week. The prior week saw an increase in claims of 66,000, with about one-half of those attributed to a computer glitch in California that finally got resolved. The government shutdown was a partial factor in the rest of the increase. The Labor Department reported that the level of claims should remain elevated until the shutdown ends.
*8:30 a.m. -- Housing starts likely rose by 3.1 percent month-on-month to 919,000 in September. Starts have been running below 900,000 in recent months, despite building permits coming in above 915,000. Building permits for September should come in at 943,000, compared with 926,000 in August.
*9:15 a.m. -- Industrial production probably rose by 0.4 percent month-on-month in September, in line with the prior month’s growth rate.
10 a.m. -- Economists look for a decline to 15.5 in the October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. This would reflect some payback after an upside surprise of 22.3 last month, when new orders, deliveries and employment all rose sharply.
12:45 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans (a voter on the FOMC this year) speaks on current economic conditions and monetary policy before the Wisconsin Real Estate and Economic Outlook Conference.
1:45 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George (a voter on the FOMC this year) speaks on the U.S. economy before an Oklahoma City business and community leaders’ luncheon.
2:45 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota (a nonvoter on the FOMC this year) speaks on “A Time of Testing” before an annual meeting of the Helena Branch of the Minneapolis Fed. Note: This is a repeat of an Oct. 4 speech.
Chile -- Overnight rate target.
Euro zone -- ECB current account.
*10 a.m. -- Economists expect a 0.6 percent increase in the September leading indicators, compared with a 0.7 percent gain in the prior month.
1 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Board Gov. Daniel Tarullo (a voter on the FOMC) speaks on “Toward Building a More Effective Resolution Regime: Progress and Challenges” at the 2013 Resolution Conference: Planning for the Orderly Resolution of a Global Systemically Important Bank in Washington.
2 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans (a voter on the FOMC this year) speaks on current economic conditions and monetary policy before the Financial Management Association International annual meeting nuncheon in Chicago.
4:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Board Gov. Jeremy Stein (a voter on the FOMC) speaks participates in a “Methods for Addressing Financial Imbalances” panel at the National Bureau of Economic Research Conference: Lessons from the Financial Crisis for Monetary Policy in Boston.
China -- Q3 GDP.
China -- September industrial production, fixed asset investments and retail sales.
Sources: Central banks, European Commission, Reuters, Market News, Capital Economics, Barclays, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.