Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump looks set to dominate in his home state of New York's April 19 primary. But should he become the Republican party's nominee, the outcome would be the opposite, according to a poll released Friday by Emerson College.
Trump leads his closest GOP rival, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, by a whopping 52 percentage points. Trump registered 64 percent support from likely GOP primary voters in New York, followed by Cruz at 12 percent and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at just 1 percent. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who dropped out after losing in his home state Tuesday, was polling 4 percent before suspending his campaign. And even in a two-man, Trump-Cruz showdown, the New York City businessman tops the Texas senator in the Empire State by a comfortable 69 percent to 25 percent.
But should Trump earn the nomination, the Emerson poll found he'd face a steep deficit against either potential Democratic nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton or Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. In those hypothetical matchups, Trump trailed in his home state by 19 percentage points to Clinton and by 17 percentage points to Sanders. Clinton, a former New York senator whose campaign headquarters is in Brooklyn, led Trump 55 percent to 36 percent in the state. Sanders, a Brooklyn native, topped Trump in the New York poll, 53 percent to 36 percent. In the Democratic primary, Clinton holds a gigantic lead over Sanders (71 percent to 23 percent).
The GOP primary poll of the traditionally Democratic state surveyed 298 likely primary voters, with a margin of error of 5.6 percentage points. The Democratic primary poll surveyed 373 likely primary voters, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points. The general election poll consisted of 768 likely general election voters with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. The survey was conducted Monday through Wednesday.
The New York Post reported in late February that confidential polling data suggested Trump could mount a serious threat to Clinton in New York in a hypothetical general election. That was based on strong polling in suburban areas. Overall, Clinton holds a clear national lead over the New York City real estate mogul, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls. She leads nationally 47.3 percent to Trump's 41 percent.