The 25th match between England and Italy is almost underway as the two squads face off for their first Group D contest at the 2014 FIFA World Cup.

The last time the two European clubs faced each other was a far cry from the pressure of the World Cup, with England defeating Italy 2-1 in a friendly exhibition match in August 2012. Italy leads the all-time series with 10 wins, 8 losses and two draws.

The World Cup match kicks off at 6 p.m. EDT. According to FiveThirtyEight’s prediction, England has a 43 percent chance of beating Italy, while there is a 29 percent chance that the game ends in a draw. The site gives England a more than 63 percent chance of escaping Group D, which also includes Uruguay and Costa Rica. Italy is likely not to advance past the group stage, according to FiveThirtyEight’s model, which gives the Azzurri a 54.7 percent chance of getting knocked out.  

No matter what the outcome is of Saturday’s match, fans of both teams shouldn’t have high hopes of their squad winning the World Cup. England has just a 2 percent chance of hoisting the trophy while the Italians have less than a 1 percent chance, according to FiveThirtyEight.