Eurozone Crisis 2011: Spain and Hungary May be Next

The Eurozone crisis in 2011 was first about Greece. Then, while Greece was still working to secure its new bailout package, Italy came into focus as its 10-year bond yields soared to 7.5 percent last week.

The Greek debt crisis threw the entire Eurozone into crisis mode. The Italian debt crisis, which was viewed as unlikely just a few months ago, has not become full-blown yet. If it does, some fear Italy will be too big to save and trigger the breakup of the Eurozone and euro currency.

Now, analyst Stewart Hall of RBC Capital Markets is eyeing Spain and Hungary as the next targets.

Hall, writing in a research note, pointed out that Spain, like Italy, suffers from severe imbalances.

While Italy's problem is its high public debt to GDP ratio (119 percent), Spain primary problem is its private sector debt to GDP ratio (212 percent). Moreover, Spanish banks are still working through the damages of the country's 2008 real estate collapse and Spain's unemployment rate remains shockingly high.

Hall thinks a source of anxiety is the looming election on Nov. 20. Polls currently point to a decisive victory that will oust the incumbent party and place a new party in charge.

The new party is pledging steeper austerity measures than the incumbent party, according to Bloomberg News. Still, the election adds an extra element of near-term uncertainty, wrote Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Joh. Berenberg Gossler & Co, in a research note.

Spain is the fourth largest economy in the Eurozone. At end of 2010, French and German banking exposure to Spanish debt totaled 400 billion euros, according to a DoubleLine Capital report.

On Monday, the differences between Spain's 10-year yield (which is back above 6 percent) against the German 10-year yield hit a euro era record, reported AFP.

For Hungary, Hall noted that ratings warnings from S&P and Fitch on Friday prompted a run on the Forint [Hungary's currency] on Monday as its currency hit a historic high against the euro.

Its public debt to GDP ratio is at 82 percent and its private sector debt to GDP ratio is 72 percent. Moreover, its government seemsinexperienced in dealing with global bond investors.

Hungary is not in the Eurozone and does not use the euro currency. However, recent events have proven that posing a threat to European banks is enough to cause panic.

Hungary is a recipe for another European flare up...[It] adds another layer of uncertainty as to how it feeds into EU banks, and how it further complicates the recapitalization process, wrote Hall.