The U.S. Federal Reserve's assessment of current conditions, as well as data on inflation and trade, will highlight the economic calendar Oct. 8-12.
The Fed’s Beige Book -- aka the "Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District" -- comes out Wednesday, and economists look for it to reflect modest improvement in the economy. Furthermore, the import price and producer price indexes will likely reflect soft inflation, mostly driven by energy prices.
Many of the world’s top central bankers will travel to Tokyo next week for the International Monetary Fund/World Bank annual meetings. Details of the meetings and the full program of seminars are available here.
The IMF will release the latest editions of its "World Economic Outlook" on Tuesday at 9 a.m. Tokyo time (Monday at 8 p.m. EDT) and its "Global Financial Stability Report" the following day at the same time.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will appear before the European Parliament in Brussels on Tuesday, beginning at 9:30 a.m. local time (3:30 a.m. EDT). Draghi will first answer questions about the European Systemic Risk Board and then participate in the ECB president’s quarterly hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.
Also on Tuesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel will travel to Athens to hold talks with Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras.
Below are entries on the economic calendar Oct. 8-12. All listed times are EDT.
No significant events or releases are planned in the U.S. because of the federal Columbus Day holiday. The bond market and government offices will be closed, but the stock market will be open.
Euro zone -- First meeting of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) Governors.
Euro zone -- Eurogroup meeting.
Italy -- Prime Minister Mario Monti meets Social Democratic Party of Germany president Sigmar Gabriel in Rome.
Switzerland -- September unemployment rate.
Switzerland -- September consumer price index.
Germany -- August trade balance.
Germany -- August industrial production.
France -- September Banque de France, or BdF, industrial business sentiment.
New Zealand -- September house prices.
Japan -- August current account.
7:30 a.m. -- The National Federation of Independent Business, or NFIB, Index of Small Business Optimism for September.
8:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet L. Yellen (a voter on the Federal Open Market Committee) participates in the IMF panel discussion "Sovereign Risk, Capital Markets, and Financial Stability: The Interconnections" in Tokyo.
Global -- IMF/World Bank annual meetings (to Oct. 14).
Germany -- Chancellor Angela Merkel visits Athens.
European Union -- Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) meeting.
Euro zone -- ECB President Mario Draghi speaks on Economic and Monetary Affairs before the European Parliament in Brussels.
Euro zone -- ECB executive board member Peter Praet speaks at Bundesbank Cash symposium.
Egypt -- September CPI.
Venezuela -- September CPI.
Mexico -- September CPI.
Australia -- September business and consumer confidence.
France -- August trade balance.
Czech Republic -- September CPI.
U.K. -- August industrial output and manufacturing output.
U.K. -- August visible trade balance.
Italy -- Second-quarter gross domestic product, final reading.
Greece -- September harmonized index of consumer prices.
7 a.m. -- Mortgage Bankers Association's mortgage index for the week ending Oct. 6.
10 a.m. -- Wholesale inventories are expected to have risen 0.4 percent in August, after gaining 0.7 percent in the prior month. Sales likely increased 0.7 percent, compared with a 0.1 percent decline in July.
2 p.m. -- The U.S. Federal Reserve Board issues its Beige Book, a survey of economic conditions around the country.
2:45 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota (a nonvoter on the FOMC this year) speaks on "Planning for Liftoff" before a group of area business and community leaders in Montana. [Note: This is a repeat of a Sept. 20 speech.]
4:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Board Governor Daniel K. Tarullo (a voter on the FOMC) gives a lecture on "Financial Stability Regulation" at an event hosted by the University of Pennsylvania Law School.
4:45 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard W. Fisher (a nonvoter on the FOMC this year) speaks before the Cato Institute's "Europe's Crisis and the Welfare State: Lessons for the United States" conference in Washington.
France -- President Francois Hollande and Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy holds Franco-Spanish summit.
Euro zone -- European Union Parliament panel debates Banking Union proposals.
Euro zone -- ECB executive Board member Peter Praet speaks at Bargeld symposium in Germany.
Philippines -- August total exports.
France -- August industrial production.
Italy -- August industrial production.
Denmark -- September CPI.
Romania -- September CPI.
Norway -- September CPI.
Sweden -- August industrial production.
8:30 a.m. -- Economists look for initial jobless claims to rise to 374,000 for the week ending Oct. 6. That is up from the 367,000 print in the prior week.
8:30 a.m. -- Import prices likely rose 0.7 percent in September, reflecting a further rise in petroleum prices. Export prices probably rose 0.4 percent, after posting a 0.9 percent gain in August.
8:30 a.m. -- Economists look for a widening in the nominal trade deficit in August, to $44 billion from $42 billion. The good news is that the nonpetroleum deficit probably narrowed.
10 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Board Governor Jeremy C. Stein (a voter on the FOMC) speaks on "Evaluating Large-Scale Asset Purchases" before the Brookings Institution in Washington.
11 a.m. -- Crude inventories for the week ending Oct. 6.
11:15 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Board Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin (a voter on the FOMC) participates in the panel discussion "Why Has Growth Become So Inequitable, And What To Do About It?" at the 2012 Women's Forum Global Meeting in Deauville, France. [Note: This will be Webcast live at the Women's Forum site.]
12:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles I. Plosser (a nonvoter on the FOMC this year) speaks on the economic outlook before the 2012 Southern Chester County Chamber of Commerce Fall Luncheon in Avondale, Pa.
2 p.m. -- Treasury budget balance for September. Economists look for a deficit of $35.0 billion in the last month of fiscal year 2012. Because of the timing of Labor Day weekend, many payments usually made at the beginning of the month (including Social Security payments) were shifted to August from September. This resulted in a substantial widening in the August deficit compared with last year, and it should also result in a narrower September reading.
3:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet L. Yellen participates in the IMF panel discussion "Japan in the Global Economy: Fiscal and Debt Challenges and Aspirations" in Tokyo.
6 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard (a nonvoter on the FOMC this year) will be available to media during the annual Fall Conference hosted by his bank in St. Louis. [Note: Conference information is available at the St. Louis Fed website.]
Korea -- South Korea seven-day repo rate.
Euro zone -- ECB publishes monthly bulletin for October.
China -- September new loans, M2 money-supply growth, and foreign reserves.
Australia -- September unemployment rate.
New Zealand -- October consumer confidence.
Malaysia -- August industrial production.
Germany -- September HICP and CPI.
France -- September HICP and CPI.
Spain -- September HICP.
Hungary -- September CPI.
Sweden -- September CPI.
Portugal -- September HICP.
Ireland -- September HICP.
Greece -- July unemployment rate.
8:30 a.m. -- Economists look for a 0.8 percent increase in producer prices in September. This largely reflect further gains in the gasoline and food components, the former in line with market energy prices and the latter partly reflecting the effect of drought in the Midwest on grain prices. Meanwhile, they have penciled in a 0.2 percent gain in the core, in line with the trend in recent months.
9:55 a.m. – Last month’s rise in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index, to 78.3 from 74.3, will probably be partly reversed in October, as the boost from the so-called QE3 and the equity-market rally fades. Economists expect the index to edge down to 77.8.
12:35 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey M. Lacker (a voter on the FOMC this year) speaks on "Challenges to Economic Growth" before students, faculty, and business leaders at the University of Virginia.
Euro zone -- August industrial production.
Singapore -- Monetary Authority of Singapore, or MAS, monetary policy statement.
Singapore -- 3Q GDP, advance estimate.
India -- August industrial production.
Italy -- September CPI, HICP.
Argentina -- September CPI.
Sources: Central banks, European Commission, Reuters, Market News, Capital Economics, Barclays, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.