A gauge of manufacturing in New York State showed growth picked up in January, rising to the highest level in nine months as new orders and employment improved, the New York Federal Reserve said in a report on Tuesday.
DAVID ADER, HEAD OF GOVERNMENT BOND STRATEGY, CRT CAPITAL GROUP, STAMFORD, CONNECTICUT
Empire State was stronger than expected pretty much across the board with prices received -- 23.08 versus 3.49 -- very strong. The only caution is inventories gained more than New Orders which could suggest an overhang, but given the gain to the futures indexes the inventory gain is wanted.
The market mixed, 2s up a bit in yield terms, 5s steady, with 10s a tiny bit firmer and flat to 30s. So a non reaction really. This is the last report of the day leaving us with the long end buyback to inspire excitement.
JACOB OUBINA, SENIOR US ECONOMIST, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, NEW YORK
This data confirms that the manufacturing sector continues to hum along. That is what ISM has been telling us over the past few months. When it comes down to it, however, this sector is only 10 percent of the economy so you have to put it all into perspective. While the sector has done well it is not enough to drive growth by more than 2 percent. Our forecast is for 1.8 percent first quarter GDP as well as 2012 GDP.
MICHAEL WOOLFOLK, SENIOR CURRENCY STRATEGIST, BNY MELLON, NEW YORK
We have been seeing some good manufacturing data recently. The inventories have been bled dry, evident from both the ISM surveys. So this better-than-expected report adds to other fourth-quarter economic numbers and should prompt additional manufacturing activity in the first quarter. Expectations had become too pessimistic. From a market perspective, it's still difficult to get beyond the European downgrades. But on a day when we have nothing new on that front, we're taking some encouragement from economic news in Asia and North America.
DAVID SLOAN, ECONOMIST, IFR ECONOMICS, A UNIT OF THOMSON REUTERS
January's Empire State Index on manufacturing conditions in New York State of 13.48 was stronger than a consensus 11.0, if not dramatically. This was a rise from 8.19 in December (revised down from 9.53) and a third straight improvement from a series of negatives that stretched from June to October of 2011. The data is consistent with a generally improving manufacturing picture seen in other surveys, though the index remains below the highs of early 2011. What is impressive in this report is a consistent message of improvement in the internals, most notably gains in new orders to 13.70 from 5.99, and a prices received index bouncing to 23.08 from 3.49, suggesting manufacturers perceive more pricing power at the start of the year.
(Americas Economics and Markets Desk)