Toyota Motor Corp lost $6.9 billion in the final quarter and warned
of a big loss in the just-started financial year as sales tumble.
For the year to next March, the maker of Prius hybrid cars forecast
an operating loss of 850 billion yen, more than double the average
forecast for a 387 billion yen loss from a survey of 20 analysts polled
by Thomson Reuters.
Following are initial reactions from analysts and investors:
KATSUHIKO HIROSHIGE, GENERAL MANAGER, EQUITIES TRADING,
The forecasts are bad and may spark selling of Toyota shares
initially on Monday. However, this will, I think, run out of steam
quickly, given the relatively positive stock market sentiment recently.
Amid emerging signs of a recovery in economic indicators recently,
the stock market has become quite immune to bad news and has focused
increasingly on the time of recovery.
Some stock market players may shrug off Toyota's forecasts as
overly conservative, believing in the prospects of economic recovery.
TSUYOSHI MOCHIMARU, ANALYST, BARCLAYS CAPITAL
Toyota's sales volume projections look a little overly pessimistic,
but given that its operating loss forecast is larger than expected, you
cannot expect a profit this fiscal year.
Toyota's bad numbers make it stand out compared with Honda.
However, the whole industry is facing excess capacity and declining
In the past two to three years Toyota did a lot of capital
expenditure and increased manufacturing capacity, so now they are left
with a lot of fixed costs to deal with.
It is possible that their sales projections do not take into
account Japanese government stimulus, so we may see an upward revision
there. However, that does not mean Toyota will swing into the black.
KOICHI OGAWA, CHIEF PORTFOLIO MANAGER, DAIWA SB INVESTMENTS
The actual results aren't so bad but the forecast was bad, very
bad. Of course it's hard to say much without knowing what the company
says. But in terms of first impressions, this forecast was really
Compared to Honda it has a lot of larger models and a lot of excess
capacity globally. Its April U.S. sales were quite poor, so it appears
their product strategy may be mistaken.
By 2010 cost cutting and capacity reduction may be taking effect,
so they could break even then. But it looks as if this year will
probably be in the red.
NAOKI FUJIWARA, FUND MANAGER, SHINKIN ASSET MANAGEMENT
My first impression is bad. Toyota's outlook was worse than I had
expected. The company expects a really tough time for the first six
I expect the bottom for the auto industry is April-June period, followed by a slow recovery.
In terms of restructuring operations to fit the current market
environment, I think Honda stays ahead of Toyota. But If Toyota can
show clearly how it will return to profitability for the next financial
year, its shares are unlikely to be sold so badly.
Toyota shares closed down 1.5 percent at 3,980 yen ahead of the
results announcement. They have risen 39 percent so far this year,
underperforming a 47 percent rise on Tokyo's transport sub-index.