Canaccord Genuity has said that the sub-seasonal notebook production in the first quarter may hurt Intel Corp. (NASDAQ:INTC).
According to our checks, a confluence of factors - including hard disk drive (HDD) shortages, weak demand, and a lack of new models - could drive Q1 notebook production down 10-20% versus a normal seasonal decline of 5-10%, analyst Bobby Burleson wrote in a note to clients.
This is especially notable considering weak production in November and likely fourth-quarter weakness, despite healthy Black Friday demand.
We remain cautious on names with high PC exposure, including Intel, and note Intel continues to expect little impact to its customers from HDD disruptions, said Burleson.
The analyst also noted that potential fourth-quarter microprocessor inventory which builds ahead of sub-seasonal demand could lead to disappointing results in the first quarter. Beyond the first quarter, Win8's post back-to-school debut may put pressure on Intel's ultrabook pricing to enable the industry's chief hope for consumer refresh in 2012.
Shares of Intel closed Thursday's regular trading session at $24.92. Burleson has a price target of $24.