Nearly two weeks into August, Hillary Clinton has maintained her post-convention bump and looks increasingly strong against her Republican rival, Donald Trump.
In a two-way matchup, she leads the businessman by six points in a new Bloomberg Politics poll released Wednesday — a slight decline from polls conducted in the week after the Democratic convention last month but still above the margin of error. When third party candidates like the Green Party’s Jill Stein or Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson are included, her lead shrinks more but she still maintains a slight edge.
By the numbers, Clinton leads in the Bloomberg poll 50 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in a two-way contest. Part of that lead is accountable to a greater consolidation of Democratic voters compared to the level of consensus seen within the Republican Party. If Clinton was worried about attracting supporters from her Democratic primary challenger, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, she likely isn’t now: She gleans 94 percent of the Democratic Party vote as a whole and 93 percent of Sanders supporters, the poll shows.
In general, the race is shaping up to be pretty attractive for Clinton. Just this week, she has seen rising fortunes in states that are generally safe for Republican candidates. In forecasts from FiveThirtyEight — which has reliably predicted the majority of state votes in the past two elections — Republican strongholds like Arizona and Georgia have flipped in her favor. In those projections, she has a strong hold on several states considered necessary in presidential electoral math, including Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, among others. She is also projected to win North Carolina, which has flipped between Democrats and Republicans in recent elections. Overall, the website gives her an 87.6 percent chance of winning the election come November (as of Wednesday morning).
Bloomberg interviewed 1,007 people, including 749 likely voters. The margin of error for the likely voter segment came out to 3.6 percent.