As early voting kicked off in Ohio Wednesday, it's still entirely unclear which candidate — Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton — will take the key swing state worth 18 electoral votes. But a recent poll has good news for Clinton, whose campaign has seen a bump in support following the surfacing of a tape last week that showed the GOP nominee bragging in 2005 about sexual assault.
"The core support for each of the major party candidates has stayed largely unchanged, but the bad news for Trump is that more of the undecideds – and some third party supporters – who are now coming off the fence are moving to Clinton," said Tom Sutton, Baldwin Wallace University political science professor and director of the Community Research Institute, in a press release.
The new poll is a bit of an outlier when it's compared to other surveys taken in the Buckeye state. The Real Clear Politics average of polls has the Democratic nominee up by just half a percentage point in a four-way race that includes Libertarian Gary Johnson and the Green Party's Jill Stein.
Polls this month have, however, consistently shown a Clinton lead, albeit with a much smaller margin than the Baldwin Wallace University survey. Monmouth University had her up by 2 percentage points, Public Policy Polling by one point and CBS News/YouGov by 4 points. These results followed a period in mid-to-late September in which polling suggested Ohio, which voted for President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, was leaning toward Trump.
It could be a perfectly timed uptick in support for Clinton, as early voting is officially under way. One-third of Ohio's votes were cast before Election Day in 2012, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer. Obama turned out so many early votes that year that Republican nominee Mitt Romney couldn't catch up on Election Day, during which he received more votes, the Enquirer reported. Both parties placed an emphasis on courting early voters in 2016.