With just 10 days remaining until the presidential election, Hillary Clinton appears to be in strong command to win the White House. The Democratic nominee leads Donald Trump in most four-way national polls, and with recent polls from CNBC and USA Today/Suffolk University showing a margin as high as 9 percent.
To make matters worse for Trump, he is trailing in many swing states and with just narrow leads in traditionally right-leaning states. According to CNN analysis, early voting has helped Clinton build leads in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina. All three states voted for former President George W. Bush in 2004. Two October polls in Texas, a must-win for Trump, had the Republican leading by 3 points and 4 points.
Meanwhile, swing states like Colorado, Pennsylvania and Virginia show Clinton with leads of at least 5 points. Clinton’s prospects have looked so good that she has reportedly looked past the campaign battle and has already looked towards building her White House staff.
"She's not being arrogant, she's being diligent," a top Democrat close to Clinton told CNN. "She prepared for the debates. Now, she's getting ready to be president."
But is the Clinton campaign overconfident about her chances and ignoring some important poll data?
The election might be a bit more competitive with this unconventional four-way race and with Trump receiving some encouraging poll data this week.
Trump is leading Clinton in Ohio, 46 percent to 42 percent, according to Remington Research poll. Florida polls by Dixie Strategies and Bloomberg had Trump leading by 4 points and 2 points, respectively. A Quinnipiac University poll had Trump leading 47 percent to 46 percent in Iowa in a two-way race. The three states account for combined 53 electoral votes.
Meanwhile, Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson continues to be a major presence. After failing to garner 1 percent of the vote in the 2012 election, Johnson is making his last run at the White House and showing an impressive rebound. He has an average of 5.2 percent, according to RealClearPolitics.com, though he has actually seen a big dip from his pinnacle of 13 points in July.
Polling guru Nate Silver pointed out how a New Hampshire poll conducted by Monmouth University showed Clinton’s lead slipping from 9 points to 4 points. But Clinton’s percentage roughly stayed the same, while Trump made a gain from 39 percent to 43 percent, by siphoning votes from Johnson and undecided voters.
To little surprise, Johnson has polled well in his home state of New Mexico, a state that has sided with Democrats in recent elections. An Albuquerque Journal poll in late September had Johnson at 24 percent.
— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) October 27, 2016