New England Patriots Prediction: Can The Houston Texans Beat The AFC’s Top Team In The 2017 NFL Playoffs?

The upcoming divisional playoff schedule features some highly compelling games, though one is considered to be far less intriguing than the others. The New England Patriots host the Houston Texans Saturday night, and the underdogs haven’t been given much of a chance to advance to the AFC Championship Game.

A victory for Houston would be one of the biggest upsets in NFL history. New England is a 16-point favorite at many Las Vegas sportsbooks, but the betting line reached as high as 17 points at some places, making it the third-largest playoff point spread in the last 49 years, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal. The Patriots’ moneyline is -2000, meaning New England is considered to have a 95 percent chance of winning.

The Texans would be underdogs against any of the other teams that remain in contention. With 50/1 odds, Houston isn’t considered to be a legitimate Super Bowl threat. None of the other seven teams have worse than 9/1 Super Bowl odds.

Houston reached the playoffs by winning the NFL’s worst division. With a 9-7 record overall, the Texans went just 4-6 against teams outside of the AFC South.

Perhaps what’s most damning regarding the Texans’ chances is their visit to Gillette Stadium in Week 3. New England wasn’t able to start Tom Brady because of his Deflategate suspension, and backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was sidelined with a shoulder injury. Facing rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett, the Texans were shut out 27-0. Making his final start of the season the following week, Brissett and the Patriots didn’t score a point in a loss to the Buffalo Bills.

If Houston wasn’t able to compete against New England’s third-string quarterback, how will they beat the best quarterback of all time?

The mismatch under center gives the Texans little chance to win Saturday. After missing the first four games of the 2016 season, Brady looked as good as he ever has. He set a record with a 14:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and his 112.2 passer rating was the second-best of his career.

Brock Osweiler will start at quarterback, but he probably wouldn’t be on the field had it not been for an injury to Houston’s backup. Tom Savage suffered a concussion in the regular-season finale, just two weeks after replacing Osweiler in the starting lineup. Only one quarterback that started most of the season finished with a worse passer rating than Osweiler, and Houston’s offense has struggled all season long, especially on the road.

In seven games at another team’s stadium, the Texans average just 14 points per contest. Osweiler posted a 60.6 passer rating in the loss against the Patriots, who have allowed the fewest points in the league. In road games against three of the NFL’s top six scoring defenses, Houston scored just 24 total points.

Houston’s best chance to upset New England would likely come in a low-scoring affair. The Patriots’ offense wasn’t particularly dominant when they beat the Texans in September, as they totaled just 282 yards of offense and took advantage of three Houston turnovers. The Texans allowed fewer total yards than any other team in the regular season, and they surrendered just 14 points to the Oakland Raiders on Wild-Card Weekend.

But Houston’s playoff victory came against Oakland’s third-string quarterback, and they could be in for a long night when facing the AFC’s No. 1 seed.