Favorites were extremely successful in Week 9, going 7-4-1 against the spread. That could change in Week 10 of the 2016 NFL season, however, when many of the games are expected to be much more competitive.
Two teams are favored by double-digits, but most of the contests on the schedule have small betting lines. Only four contests feature a point spread of more than three points, and five teams that have at least five wins are underdogs.
Below are picks against the spread for every game in Week 10, as well as updated betting odds at Las Vegas and online sportsbooks. Betting lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark.
Cleveland Browns (+10) at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens should defeat the winless Browns, but Cleveland has a good chance to keep this game within single digits. Cleveland usually plays Baltimore close, having covered the spread against the Ravens in five of their last six visits to Baltimore. The Browns only lost to the Ravens by five points after taking an early 20-0 lead in Week 2, and Baltimore’s offense makes it difficult for them to blow anyone out. None of the Ravens’ four victories have come by more than seven points.
Prediction ATS: Cleveland
Houston Texans (-1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Browns might be the only team in the AFC that’s worse than the Jaguars. Jacksonville is 0-4 against teams that are .500 or better, and Houston provides them with a difficult matchup. Blake Bortles ranks 27th in passer rating, and he should have a lot of trouble against the Texans’ No. 1 ranked pass defense.
Prediction ATS: Houston
Kansas City Chiefs (+3) at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers might not make the playoffs because of their slow start, but they are still among the most talented NFC teams. The Chiefs aren’t nearly as good on the road as they are at home, having suffered both of their losses away from Kansas City. Carolina is finally getting pressure on the quarterback, totaling 12 sacks in two weeks, and it could be a long afternoon for Alex Smith.
Prediction ATS: Carolina
Denver Broncos (+2) at New Orleans Saints
The Broncos’ offensive struggles have hurt them when facing top offensive teams, and the same could happen in New Orleans. Atlanta and Oakland rank first and second in total yards, respectively, and both have victories over Denver. The Saints are third in total yards, and their offense will be difficult to stop at the Superdome. New Orleans has totaled 361 rushing yards in the last two games, and the Saints could take advantage of Denver’s weak run defense.
Prediction ATS: New Orleans
Los Angeles Rams (+2) at New York Jets
The Jets have lost six games in large part because of their porous pass defense, but the Rams have a quarterback that probably won’t be able to take advantage of New York’s defense. Case Keenum has posted a passer rating of 76.0 or less in three of his last four games, and it could be more of the same on Sunday.
Prediction ATS: New York
Atlanta Falcons (PK) at Philadelphia Eagles
No one has been able to stop Atlanta’s offense this season, and it’s hard to believe that Philadelphia will be the team to do it. The Eagles have surrendered at least 23 points in four of their last five games, and they were defeated in each contest as rookie Carson Wentz has experienced some growing pains. Philadelphia is better at home, but playing on the road hasn’t phased the Falcons, who have covered the spread in their last six road games.
Prediction ATS: Atlanta
Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Washington Redskins
Suffering three straight losses, the Vikings can’t seem to do anything right on offense. With an offensive line that’s in shambles and the NFL’s worst running game, they’ll have trouble winning if they allow even two touchdowns.
Prediction ATS: Washington
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans
The point spread indicates that Green Bay would be an 8.5-point favorite over Tennessee at home, and that betting line doesn’t make much sense. The public continues to overrate the Packers, who have proven to be only a borderline playoff team. Tennessee was hurt by allowing two defensive touchdowns in their Week 9 loss to San Diego, but the Titans can pull off the upset if they avoid making costly mistakes.
Prediction ATS: Tennessee
Chicago Bears (+1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are the worst home team in the NFL, having lost 18 of their last 21 games in Tampa Bay. Chicago is a better team now that Jay Cutler is back under center, and he could have a lot of success against a defense that gives up 29 points per game.
Prediction ATS: Chicago
Miami Dolphins (+4) at San Diego Chargers
The betting line indicates that the Chargers are just one point better than the Dolphins on a neutral field, but San Diego probably has a greater edge over Miami. The Chargers have rebounded from their slow start, winning three of four games with their only loss coming in Denver. Miami hasn’t beaten a winning team yet, and San Diego could end the season with nine or 10 victories.
Prediction ATS: San Diego
San Francisco 49ers (+13.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The 49ers continue to get blown out every week, and things won’t get better when they visit Arizona. San Francisco has already lost to the Cardinals by 12 points at home, and they’ve lost by at least 19 points in each of their three road games. Carson Palmer has put up big numbers against below-average defenses, and he might have his best game of the season when facing a 49ers team that’s allowed at least 33 points in four straight games.
Prediction ATS: Arizona
Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers aren’t playing like a top contender in the AFC, and the Cowboys are having success on both sides of the ball. Ben Roethlisberger still isn’t completely healthy, and he might have trouble putting up big numbers against a defense that hasn’t given up more than 23 points in a game this season. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott have a good chance to help Dallas pull off the upset.
Prediction ATS: Dallas
Seattle Seahawks (+7.5) at New England Patriots
The Seahawks are still among the NFL’s best teams, and it will be difficult for the Patriots to defeat them by double-digits. Russell Wilson will play well if he isn’t under constant pressure, and New England has one of the worst pass rushes in the league. It could be a relatively high-scoring affair that isn’t decided until the final minutes.
Prediction ATS: Seattle
Cincinnati Bengals (+2) at New York Giants
The two teams are very even, but the best strategy might be to take Cincinnati and the points. The Giants have gotten away with Eli Manning playing poorly this season, but his struggles and the team’s lack of a run game could come back to bite them on Monday night.
Prediction ATS: Cincinnati
Season Record: 68-62-3