After underdogs went 8-5 against the spread in Week 10 of the 2016 NFL season, it could be difficult for them to have as much success in Week 11. With so many mismatches on the upcoming schedule, a few contests could be decided by multiple touchdowns.
Four teams are favored by more than a touchdown, as some of the league’s bottom-feeders take on top Super Bowl contenders. Four first-place teams are set to face last-place teams, and there are only two matchups between division leaders.
Below are picks against the spread for every game in Week 11, as well as updated betting odds at Las Vegas and online sportsbooks. Betting lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark.
New Orleans Saints (+3.5) at Carolina Panthers
Despite their Week 10 loss, Carolina is playing much better than they did during their 1-5 start. The Panthers’ defense is allowing less than 17 points per game in the last three contests, and the Saints’ offense hasn’t been nearly as dominant when facing top defenses. New Orleans can’t stop anyone, and considering most Thursday night games have been blowouts, the Panthers could win big to kick off the week.
Prediction ATS: Carolina
Tennessee Titans (+3) at Indianapolis Colts
Marcus Mariota has proven to be worthy of the No. 2 overall pick last year, and he has a good chance to give Tennessee their first win over Indianapolis in 11 tries. The quarterback ranks seventh in passer rating, and he’s been especially good against subpar competition. The Titans should put up a ton of points, having scored at least 26 points in each of their last six games, while the Colts haven’t given up less than 26 points since Week 5. Indianapolis defeated Tennessee in Week 7, but if the Titans’ defense is even a little bit improved, they’ll get the victory.
Prediction ATS: Tennessee
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Detroit Lions
Even though the Lions are in first place, they are somewhat fortunate not to be below .500 like the Jaguars. All five of Detroit’s victories have been the result of a game-winning score in the final two minutes or overtime, and Sunday could be another nailbiter. As poorly as Jacksonville has played, they’ve kept things close against the Chiefs and Texans in recent weeks, and the same could be the case in Detroit.
Prediction ATS: Jacksonville
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are going to win this game, and the only question is whether or not they can win by more than a touchdown. Kansas City is 17-2 in their last 19 regular season games with 11 straight wins against losing teams. Tampa Bay has had some high-scoring games, but they have trouble moving the ball against good defenses. The Bucs scored just seven points in each of their two games against top-nine scoring defenses, and Kansas City’s No. 7 scoring defense will make life very difficult for Jameis Winston.
Prediction ATS: Kansas City
Chicago Bears (+7.5) at New York Giants
This is a game the Giants should win, but nothing has been easy for New York this season. All six of their victories have been decided in the final two minutes, and their struggles on offense make it difficult for them to blow anyone out. Jay Cutler could have a long day against a good Giants defense, but Eli Manning’s propensity to throw interceptions and New York’s lack of a running game will keep this one close.
Prediction ATS: Chicago
Arizona Cardinals (PK) at Minnesota Vikings
As good as Minnesota’s defense is, they will have trouble scoring enough points to defeat Arizona. The Vikings haven’t scored more than 20 points since Week 5, and they were held to 16 points or fewer in Weeks 7-9. The Cardinals rank ahead of the Vikings in total defense, and David Johnson should have some success against a Minnesota defense that can be susceptible against the run.
Prediction ATS: Arizona
Buffalo Bills (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have been one of the most disappointing teams of 2016, and they might continue to struggle in Week 11. The Bills are 8-0-1 against the spread when playing after consecutive losses, and they could be in for another bounce-back performance. After allowing the Giants’ last-ranked rushing attack to have success on Monday night, Cincinnati will have a lot of trouble slowing down LeSean McCoy.
Prediction ATS: Buffalo
Baltimore Ravens (+7) at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are the NFC’s best team and arguably the top team in the entire NFL. Baltimore has climbed to the top of the AFC North by taking advantage of a weak schedule with the league’s No. 1 ranked defense. The Ravens are 0-3 against winning teams, and Dallas’ offensive line should allow rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott to continue playing like MVP candidates.
Prediction ATS: Dallas
Pittsburgh Steelers (-8) at Cleveland Browns
Any potential playoff team should be favored by double-digits against the Browns. Five of Cleveland’s last seven losses have come by at least 11 points, and Pittsburgh might be ready for a big win. Ben Roethlisberger is finally healthy, and the Steelers averaged 27.8 points per game before he got injured. The Browns haven’t given up fewer than 28 points since Week 2, and they’ve given few reasons to believe they won’t suffer another blowout loss.
Prediction ATS: Pittsburgh
Miami Dolphins (-1) at Los Angeles Rams
It’s impossible to know what to expect out of rookie Jared Goff since he’s never played in an NFL game, but it’s hard to believe he’ll be very good, considering he sat behind Case Keenum for more than half the season. Miami is one of the NFL’s hottest teams with four straight wins, and they are the safe bet in Goff’s debut.
Prediction ATS: Miami
New England Patriots (-13) at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers don’t have any real chance to keep this game close. The Patriots will come out firing after being beaten by the Seahawks, and New England is 16-3 in their last 19 games after a loss. The Patriots are averaging 32 points per game with Tom Brady under center, and San Francisco has allowed more points than any NFL team. New England won by 20 points when they visited the winless Browns, and they’ll win by a similar margin when they visit the only other team that has fewer than two victories.
Prediction ATS: New England
Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle’s offensive line held up against New England’s poor pass rush, but that might not be the case against Philadelphia. The Eagles are tied for sixth in the NFL with 25 sacks, and in Week 10 they became the only defense in 2016 that successfully forced quarterback Matt Ryan to have a bad game. This game could go down to the wire, much like when Seattle hosted Buffalo two weeks ago.
Prediction ATS: Philadelphia
Green Bay Packers (+2.5) at Washington Redskins
The betting line indicates that the Packers are better on a neutral field, but that simply hasn’t been the case in 2016. Playing in a much better division than Green Bay, Washington has two fewer losses, and the Redskins have been defeated just once since Week 3. Whether he’s just playing poorly or he doesn’t have the right weapons around him, Aaron Rodgers is no longer performing like a top quarterback. The Packers have allowed at least 31 points in each of their last four games, and they’ll have trouble beating a good team on the road.
Prediction ATS: Washington
Houston Texans (+5.5) at Oakland Raiders
Oakland doesn’t have any home-field advantage since the game is being played in Mexico, but they might not have any trouble winning this game handily. Brock Osweiler threw for just 99 yards last week, and he still hasn’t posted a passer rating of 91.0 or better in any game. That won’t be good enough to keep pace with Derek Carr and the Raiders, who have scored at least 30 points in four of their last five games.
Prediction ATS: Oakland
Season Record: 74-70-3