With 11 of the games in Week 12 featuring just one team with a winning record, an inordinate amount of contests on the schedule are not expected to be close. The betting odds at Las Vegas casinos have only one team favored by less than a field goal, and more than half of the favorites are laying more than six points.
The favorites and underdogs split Week 11, as both covered seven of the 14 betting lines. Below are picks against the spread for every game in Week 12.
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) at Oakland Raiders
Bringing the No.2 defense into Oakland against the league’s worst offense, the Chiefs should not have a difficult time against the Raiders. They haven’t allowed more than 20 points in any of their victories, and have covered the spread in each win. The Raiders only crossed midfield twice in last week’s game against the Chargers, and there’s a chance they’ll be kept out of the end zone for a second straight week.
Prediction ATS: Kansas City
Cleveland Browns (+3) at Atlanta Falcons
The Browns might not be as good as their 6-4 record would indicate, since they’ve barely beaten some of the poorest teams in the league, and haven’t been dominant on either side of the ball. The Falcons have won two straight games, and return to Atlanta, where they play their best. Atlanta has covered the spread in all four wins, and they could be set to win at home, where Matt Ryan has a 115.7 passer rating in 2014.
Prediction ATS: Atlanta
Tennessee Titans (+11) at Philadelphia Eagles
The Titans might be the perfect opponent for the Eagles, following their blowout loss to the Packers. They won’t allow close to 53 points in a second straight week, considering Tennessee hasn’t scored more than 28 points in any game this year. Philadelphia still has a dynamic offense, and their last three wins have come by an average of over 20 points per game.
Prediction ATS: Philadelphia
Detroit Lions (+7) at New England Patriots
The Lions have won seven games by utilizing the league’s best defense, but there might be no team that can currently stop Tom Brady and New England’s offense. The Patriots have scored at least 42 points in three straight games, and the Lions haven’t surpassed the 24-point mark since the season opener. Detroit won’t be able to keep up with the Patriots, who have won their last 14 regular-season home games.
Prediction ATS: New England
Green Bay Packers (-9.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay is laying a lot of points on the road, but it’s difficult not to take them when they are giving Minnesota less than double-digits. Aaron Rodgers is playing better than anyone in the league, helping the Packers score 108 points in their last two games. Teddy Bridgewater looks every bit like a rookie, having thrown four touchdown passes and six interceptions. It might be closer than the 32-point blowout that occurred in their previous matchup, but there’s a good chance Rodgers won’t have to finish the game for a third straight week.
Prediction ATS: Green Bay
Jacksonville Jaguars (+14) at Indianapolis Colts
After putting up just 20 points against the Patriots, the Colts should return to being the offensive juggernaut they’ve been all season. Indianapolis won 44-17 in the Week 3 meeting between the two teams, and Week 12 should produce a similar result. Jacksonville’s defeats are almost never close, as they've been beaten six times by at least 14 points. The Colts have covered the spread in each of their six victories, winning by an average of nearly 18 points per contest.
Prediction ATS: Indianapolis
Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) at Houston Texans
Even after getting a 17-point win at New Orleans, it’s hard to trust Cincinnati, who has failed to beat the Panthers and Browns at home, and lost to the Patriots and Colts by 53 total points. Even with Arian Foster banged up, Houston’s elite ground game should be able to take advantage of the No.28 run defense. Ryan Mallett played well in his first game as a starter, and he could have a similar performance in Week 12.
Prediction ATS: Houston
New York Jets (+4.5) at Buffalo Bills
The Jets finally got a win in their last contest, but they needed everything to go right, in order to get a one-possession win. That’s not likely to be the case in Week 12, where they won’t win the turnover battle 4-0 for a second straight game. Kyle Orton is far from a great quarterback, but he hasn’t thrown an interception in three games. Vick has an interception and three fumbles this season, having attempted just 102 passes. Buffalo might not beat New York by 20 points like they did in Week 8, but they should come out on top.
Prediction ATS: Buffalo
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) at Chicago Bears
Even though they’ve only gone 1-3 since their bye week, the Buccaneers have been improved from the team that lost two games by at least 31 points. Tampa Bay nearly beat Minnesota and Cleveland, and defeated Washington by 20 points with Josh McCown at the helm. The Bears only gave up 13 points in Week 11, but that’s no reflection of how they’ve played all year, and the Bucs should be able to move the ball on a team that’s covered the spread in just two of their last 14 home games.
Prediction ATS: Tampa Bay
Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) at Seattle Seahawks
That Cardinals have a lot of value, getting 6.5 points, considering they’ve proven to be the better team over 10 games. Seattle is not as dominant as they were a year ago, failing to cover six of 10 betting lines. Arizona only allowed more than 20 points when they faced Peyton Manning and the Broncos, so even if they come up short, it should be a close contest.
Prediction ATS: Arizona
St. Louis Rams (+5.5) at San Diego Chargers
Following a 5-1 start, the Chargers have looked like a much different team, losing three straight games and beating the winless Raiders in a seven-point game. St. Louis can be unpredictable, but they’ve played well against some good teams, beating both Super Bowl teams from last year. Jeff Fisher’s teams play well as underdogs, and an improved pass rush should give Philip Rivers some problems.
Prediction ATS: St. Louis
Miami Dolphins (+7) at Denver Broncos
The Broncos have lost of two of three games by at least 15 points, and they could be without Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders on Sunday. Still, Peyton Manning leads one of the best offenses in football. Denver has lost three games in each year that Manning has been with the Broncos, but he’s also helped Denver outscore their opponent by at least a touchdown in all but one victory. Denver should be able to take care of business at home, and a win likely means a cover.
Prediction ATS: Denver
Washington Redskins (+9) at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers shouldn’t have much trouble beating the Redskins, but it won’t be easy for them to do so by at least nine points. The game could be low-scoring, since both teams have a top 11 pass and run defense. San Francisco has a pair of two-score wins, but four of their victories have come by six points or less. Their offense ranks just 20th in the NFL, and it could be difficult for the 49ers to get a blowout win.
Prediction ATS: Washington
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at New York Giants
The Giants continue to struggle against good teams, going 0-7 straight up and against the spread versus teams with a winning record. New York has the worst rush defense in all of football, and DeMarco Murray is almost a guaranteed to have a big game, having totaled 100 rushing yards or more in nine of 10 games.
Prediction ATS: Dallas
Baltimore Ravens (+3.5) at New Orleans Saints
It appears that the Saints’ recent history of home-field dominance might not have much significance in 2014. New Orleans has lost two in a row at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, and they needed overtime to beat Tampa Bay at their home stadium in Week 5. Baltimore is coming off a bye, and they are 13-2 under John Harbaugh when having more than seven days’ rest, via RJ Bell of pregame.com. The Ravens are simply the better team, and should prove it on Monday night.
Prediction ATS: Baltimore
Season Record: 84-76-1