Week 13 of the 2016 NFL season features one of the most interesting schedules of the year. Only one contest has two playoff teams from the same conference, and no divisional games will be played Sunday.
The Chiefs’ visit to Atlanta might be the best game of Week 13 since the two teams have 15 combined wins. Only the New England Patriots are favored by even a touchdown, and it wouldn’t be much of a shock for several road underdogs to get victories. Favorites went 8-7-1 against the spread in Week 12.
Below are picks against the spread for every game in Week 13, as well as updated betting odds at Las Vegas and online sportsbooks. Betting lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark.
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Minnesota Vikings
The Cowboys are the best team in football, and they continue to beat every team that’s put in front of them. That should continue against the Vikings, who have lost five of their last six games and rank last in total offense. Dallas has scored at least 24 points in every game during their 10-game winning streak, and that will be more than enough to win in Minnesota. The Cowboys are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as a favorite.
Prediction ATS: Dallas
Denver Broncos (-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The defending champs haven’t had an easy victory in a few weeks, but they’ll get one when facing the worst team on their entire 2016 schedule. Denver’s defense should make life miserable for the Jaguars, who are 0-7 against teams with a .500 record or better. Blake Bortles hasn’t posted a passer rating of 90.0 when facing a team that ranks better than 25th in pass defense, and the quarterback will make costly mistakes against the team that allows fewer yards through the air than anyone in the NFL.
Prediction ATS: Denver
Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons
It can no longer be denied that the Falcons are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Atlanta scored 38 points against the NFL’s top-ranked defense in Week 12, and no team has been able to slow them down in the Georgia Dome. Averaging 34.6 points per game at home, the Falcons should be able to defeat the Chiefs, who might not have the necessary playmakers to keep pace with Atlanta.
Prediction ATS: Atlanta
Houston Texans (+6.5) at Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been at his best for much of this season, but he gives Green Bay an enormous advantage at quarterback in Week 13. The Packers have lost five of their last seven games because of their inability to stop opposing offenses, but Brock Osweiler has proven that he can’t put up big numbers against even the worst defense. Green Bay could win this one easily.
Prediction ATS: Green Bay
Philadelphia Eagles (-1) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Eagles have struggled mightily on the road, defeating only the two-win Bears when playing away from Philadelphia. Carson Wentz has looked more like a rookie in the second half of the season, and he’s not getting any help from one of the worst receiving corps in the league. Even though Cincinnati will miss the playoffs, they have won both of their games against teams with losing records. The Bengals’ defense hasn’t allowed more than 21 points in three straight games, and it should play well against a struggling offense to get the win at home.
Prediction ATS: Cincinnati
Detroit Lions (+6) at New Orleans Saints
The Lions somehow manage to keep all of their games close, and Sunday should be no different. Matthew Stafford hasn’t gotten much help in 2016, but he’s performed like one of the NFL’s top quarterbacks. Detroit’s signal caller and Drew Brees should both put up big numbers in a contest that comes down to the final minutes, something that’s worked out in Detroit’s favor all year long. New Orleans is 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games as favorites of 4.5 points or more.
Prediction ATS: Detroit
San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) at Chicago Bears
In a matchup between the NFC’s two worst teams, the smart decision is to take the points. San Francisco has the better quarterback, and Chicago has suffered so many key injuries that it will be difficult for them to win any more games the rest of the season.
Prediction ATS: San Francisco
Los Angeles Rams (+13.5) at New England Patriots
The Rams are coming off a 28-point loss in New Orleans, and their Week 13 contest could look very similar. Despite their talent on defense, L.A. has put up a few awful defensive performances, and they could be in for a long day against the best quarterback of all time. It’s still unknown how good Jared Goff is, and Bill Belichick could make life miserable for the rookie quarterback.
Prediction ATS: New England
Miami Dolphins (+3) at Baltimore Ravens
Miami has won six games in a row, but their streak of success could come to an end now that they are facing an elite defense. The Dolphins are 0-2 on the road against teams with winning records, and Baltimore has allowed 14 or fewer points in three of their last four games. Ryan Tannehill might struggle, having taken advantage of poor defenses during Miami’s latest run.
Prediction ATS: Baltimore
Buffalo Bills (+3) at Oakland Raiders
Oakland is tied for the AFC’s best record, and they should be more than three-point favorites against a team that’s likely to miss the postseason. Buffalo has surrendered at least 28 points in each of their last three games against winning teams, and the Raiders, who’ve scored 27 points or more in nine of their 11 games, should move the ball with ease.
Prediction ATS: Oakland
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at San Diego Chargers
The Chargers haven’t been able to maintain any kind of success in 2016, and they could be headed for a loss a week after they defeated the Texans in Houston. Tampa Bay has played well as road underdogs, winning in Carolina, Atlanta and Kansas City. The Buccaneers have a good chance to cover the spread and pull off the upset against a team that continues to make key mistakes late in games.
Prediction ATS: Tampa Bay
Washington Redskins (+2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Arizona’s playoff hopes essentially came to an end with their Week 12 loss, but Washington still has a lot to play for with a half-game lead for the final NFC wild-card spot. The Redskins’ offense makes them one of the NFC’s top teams, having only suffered losses to teams that currently have at least a share of first-place in their respective divisions. Arizona has just one victory in six games against teams with winning records, and they are clearly not the same team that reached the NFC Championship Game a year ago.
Prediction ATS: Washington
New York Giants (+6) at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Giants have gone 8-3 by barely defeating some of the NFL’s worst teams, and they could be in trouble when visiting a formidable opponent for the first time in several weeks. New York has lost by at least a touchdown in both of their games as road underdogs this season, and their struggling offense won’t be able to keep up with a team that averages 32 points at home when Ben Roethlisberger starts.
Prediction ATS: Pittsburgh
Carolina Panthers (+6.5) at Seattle Seahawks
The Panthers might not win in Seattle, but they should be in the game for most of the way. Carolina is going to miss the playoffs because of their inability to win tight games against good teams, having lost to four teams with winning records by three points or less. Sunday could be another close loss for the defending NFC champs.
Prediction ATS: Carolina
Indianapolis Colts (-1) at New York Jets
The Jets can’t score, and that’s going to be a problem against the Colts and a returning Andrew Luck. New York is averaging just 15.2 points in their last nine games. Indianapolis shouldn’t have trouble moving the ball against a secondary that can’t slow down competent quarterbacks.
Prediction ATS: Indianapolis
Season Record: 88-84-5