Underdogs have had a tremendous amount of success in the early part of the 2016 NFL season. They went 11-5 against the spread in Week 3, and favorites might continue to struggle in Week 4.
Three teams are favored by at least a touchdown in Week 4, though none of them have a winning record. Four teams have a perfect record against the spread, and none of them are getting points on the upcoming schedule.
Below are picks against the spread for every game in Week 4, as well as updated betting odds at Las Vegas and online sportsbooks. Betting lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark.
Miami Dolphins (+7) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have gone 1-2 against the NFL’s toughest schedule, and they are due for a breakout performance on Thursday night. Miami’s offense hasn’t been able to get anything going in seven of the eight quarters in which they’ve faced top competition, and it could be a long night for Ryan Tannehill in Cincinnati.
Prediction ATS: Cincinnati
Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
With the two teams traveling to London, this feels like Gus Bradley’s last game as the Jaguars’ head coach, much like the Dolphins fired Joe Philbin after he lost in Week 4 in London last year. Jacksonville is a bad team, finding different ways to lose each week, and they aren’t likely to right the ship against a team that’s beaten them in six out of their last seven matchups.
Prediction ATS: Indianapolis
Cleveland Browns (+7.5) at Washington Redskins
Despite their struggles, the Browns have managed to stay competitive, just missing out on a chance to win their last two games. Washington could very well blow Cleveland out, but it’s hard to trust the Redskins and lay more than a touchdown when Kirk Cousins and their defense has been so inconsistent.
Prediction ATS: Cleveland
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at New York Jets
The betting line has moved to nearly three points with Russell Wilson likely to play, but the quarterback should struggle against the Jets as he battles multiple injuries. The Seahawks only scored one touchdown in the first two games, and they’ll have trouble finding the end zone in New York. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be much better than he was in Week 3, and New York will win if he can avoid committing multiple turnovers.
Prediction ATS: New York
Carolina Panthers (-3) at Atlanta Falcons
The Panthers have lost two of their first three games, but their defeats came against arguably the NFL’s two best defenses. The one game in which Cam Newton wasn’t constantly pressured, he threw four touchdown passes and led Carolina to 46 points. Twenty-seven teams have more sacks than the Falcons, and Atlanta has given up at least 28 points in each game. Look for the Panthers to prove why they won 15 games and reached the Super Bowl last season.
Prediction ATS: Carolina
Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears
The Bears might be the NFL’s worst team, but the Lions aren’t very good either. The final score of Detroit's seven-point loss to the Green Bay Packers doesn’t indicate how one-sided the contest actually was, and it’s not wise to bet on Detroit as a road favorite. Chicago can’t keep losing against the spread every week, and they might win their first game of 2016.
Prediction ATS: Chicago
Tennessee Titans (+5) at Houston Texans
The absence of J.J. Watt changes the dynamic of Houston’s defense, as seen by the Texans’ 27-0 loss in Week 3 when the defensive end had virtually no impact. Tennessee's defense has been impressive thus far, allowing no more than two touchdowns in any game, and they should be able to keep things close in a low-scoring contest.
Prediction ATS: Tennessee
Oakland Raiders (+3.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore has easily been the least impressive unbeaten team with three wins against bad opponents. They narrowly escaped losses against the Browns and Jaguars in consecutive weeks, and their luck could run out against a potential playoff team. With the point spread higher than a field goal, the Raiders are the right choice.
Prediction ATS: Oakland
Denver Broncos (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Broncos are a perfect 3-0 against the spread this season, and it doesn’t make much sense to bet against them until they lose. Denver continues to prove they are a top Super Bowl contender, and possibly the best team in the league. They’ll eventually lose when the defense can’t cover up for Trevor Siemian’s mistakes, but that shouldn’t happen against a team that probably won’t make the playoffs.
Prediction ATS: Denver
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at San Francisco 49ers
The Cowboys could be walking into an upset in Week 4. The team is banged up with injuries to Dez Bryant and offensive lineman La’el Collins. Dak Prescott has been impressive, but his streak of 99 passes without throwing an interception isn’t sustainable, and San Francisco was dominant in their one home game this season.
Prediction ATS: San Francisco
New Orleans Saints (+3.5) at San Diego Chargers
The Saints have a good chance to get their first win of the season on Sunday. San Diego’s weak pass defense could struggle against Drew Brees and New Orleans’ prolific passing attack, and the Chargers have one of the worst home-field advantages in the NFL.
Prediction ATS: New Orleans
Los Angeles Rams (+8) at Arizona Cardinals
It might be too early to tell, but two losses in their first three games could mean that the Cardinals are going to take a step back from 2015. Carson Palmer has been picked off multiple times in three of his last five games dating back to last season, and the Rams’ defense has a chance to keep this game close. The Rams won in Arizona a year ago, making it even more difficult to lay the 8.5 points.
Prediction ATS: Los Angeles
Kansas City Chiefs (+5.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh’s offense is too good to struggle for a third straight game, and Kansas City might not be able to keep up. With Le’Veon Bell playing his first game of the year and the Steelers returning home, Pittsburgh should go to 3-1 and potentially gain a share of first place in the AFC North.
Prediction ATS: Pittsburgh
New York Giants (+4.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Until further notice, the Vikings should be recognized as the best team in the NFC. They’ve been incredibly impressive with wins over the Packers and Panthers, while the Giants nearly lost to the Cowboys and winless Saints. Minnesota made Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton look less than ordinary, and they should do the same with Eli Manning. Minnesota is more than 1.5 points better than New York on a neutral field, and they should close out Week 4 with an impressive victory.
Prediction ATS: Minnesota
Buffalo Bills (+5.5) at New England Patriots
It doesn't seem to matter whom the Patriots start at quarterback, and the Bills are one of the worst teams in the NFL.
Prediction ATS: New England
Season Record: 24-24