Nonfarm Payrolls, ISM, ECB Meeting Eyed: Next Week?s Economic Events

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U.S. Unemployment
The recent trend in hiring has been broad-based.

Investors might be in for another week of gloomy economic news.

The U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, Institute for Supply Management data, and the European Central Bank's monthly policy meeting are key items on the economic calendar from April 30 to May 4.

Three-quarters of the 60 economists polled by Thomson Reuters expect the ECB to go beyond liquidity injections and buy more government bonds in the next three months to address the sovereign-debt crisis in Europe.

Below are entries on the economic calendar, where all listed times are Eastern Daylight Time:

Monday

8:30 a.m. -- Personal income will likely increase 0.3 percent, and consumption will probably jump 0.4 percent in March. Economists expect wage and salary growth to slow, reflecting weaker job growth and the soft 0.1 percent gain in average hourly earnings. The rise in consumption is largely driven by higher prices. Core personal consumption expenditures index prices should come in 0.2 percent higher.

8:30 a.m. -- Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index for March.

9:45 a.m. -- The Chicago purchasing managers' index, aka ISM-Chicago, is expected to decline to 61.0 in April from 62.2 in March. That's consistent with a moderation in business activity across the region. Since Chicago is particularly sensitive to autos, the recent softness in vehicle sales suggests that a drop is likely.

10:30 a.m. -- The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for April.

TBA -- The Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for March. The trimmed mean PCE inflation rate is an alternative measure of core inflation in the PCE price index.

5:30 p.m. -- Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher (a nonvoter on the Federal Open Market Committee this year) speaks on a panel titled Jobs for America at the 2012 Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles.

Non-U.S.:

Spain -- Preliminary first-quarter GDP.

Spain -- Deadline for budget submission to the European Union Commission.

Euro zone -- March M3/private-sector loan data.

Euro zone -- April inflation data: flash Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices.

Tuesday

9:30 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota (a nonvoter on the FOMC this year) speaks on What's Different About Indian Country Economic Development? at Growing Economies in Indian Country: A National Summit, which will address economic growth in Native American communities.

10 a.m. -- Economists have penciled in a decline in the ISM manufacturing index, to 52.8 from 53.4. While this would be consistent with expansion, it would also mean that this ISM index has essentially been flat for five months. Regional manufacturing indicators, such as the Empire State Manufacturing Survey and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's survey, fell in April, while new orders eased in March, suggesting the pace of growth in the manufacturing sector has eased, compared with the relatively strong pace recorded in the first quarter.

10 a.m. -- Construction spending should increase 0.4 percent in March, after tumbling 1.1 percent in February. The drop in February reflected weakness in the private nonresidential and the public sectors. Economists are looking for a small rebound in both in March.

10:30 a.m. -- Dallas Fed services activity index in April.

11 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco  President John Williams (a voter on the FOMC this year) speaks on a panel discussing U.S. Overview: Is the Recovery Sustainable? at the Milken Institute Global Conference.

12:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart (a voter on the FOMC this year) speaks on the economy and monetary policy as part of a panel on Twist and Shout: The Limits of Monetary Policy in an Interconnected World at the Milken Institute Global Conference .

3 p.m. -- Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser (a nonvoter on the FOMC this year) speaks on the economic outlook at the CFA Society of San Diego.

TBA -- Total vehicle sales are expected to increase to an annualized rate of 14.4 million in April, from 14.31 million in March. This would only partly reverse the decline seen in March, and it would begin the second quarter on a softer footing than that of the first three months of the year, when an unseasonably warm winter pulled forward sales from the spring.

Non-U.S.:

China -- Manufacturing PMI for April. HSBC's flash manufacturing PMI released this week gave a reading of 49.1, showing continued contraction in China's manufacturing sector.

Japan -- April auto sales.

U.K. -- April manufacturing PMI index.

Wednesday

7 a.m. -- Mortgage Bankers Association's mortgage purchase applications index for the week ended April 28.

8 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Gov. Daniel Tarullo speaks to the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

8:15 a.m. -- Automatic Data Processing employment report. Economists are calling for the ADP measure of private-sector employment to expand by 180,000 in April, after a 209,000 increase in March. Over the past few months, the ADP figure has been higher than the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' measure of private employment.

9:45 a.m. -- ISM-New York index for April.

10 a.m. -- Factory orders should have declined 1.5 percent in March, after advancing 1.3 percent in February. That represents a 1 percent increase in nondurable goods, which partly offsets the 4.2 percent drop in durable goods reported in Wednesday's preliminary release.

10:30 a.m. -- Crude inventories for the week ended April 28.

12:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker (a voter on the FOMC this year) speaks on the economic outlook in Norfolk, Va.

Non-U.S.:

Spain -- April manufacturing PMI index.

Italy -- April manufacturing PMI index.

Euro zone -- Final reading on April manufacturing PMI index.

Germany -- April unemployment level/change.

Euro zone -- March unemployment rate.

China -- April nonmanufacturing PMI index.

Thursday

7:30 a.m. -- Challenger job-cut report for April.

8:30 a.m. -- Nonfarm labor productivity is expected to decline 0.5 percent annualized in the preliminary release for the first quarter, the first decline at a quarterly annualized rate since the second quarter of last year. Real hourly compensation likely expanded 1.9 percent in the first quarter, roughly matching the pace of increase in the fourth quarter of last year.

8:30 a.m. -- Initial jobless claims for the week ended April 28 are expected to fall modestly to 380,000, from 388,000 in the prior week. This would still make the four-week moving average edge up to 386,000, the highest level since the week of Dec. 8.

10 a.m. -- The ISM nonmanufacturing index is expected to fall to 55.2 in April from 56.0 in March, as service-sector data released this month suggest softening activity.

11 a.m. -- San Francisco Fed President Williams speaks on a panel discussing the economic outlook as part of the Economic Forecast Project at the University of California at Santa Barbara.

1 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart (a voter on the FOMC this year) speaks on a panel discussing the economy and monetary policy as part of the Economic Forecast Project at UC-Santa Barbara.

1:30 p.m. -- Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser (a nonvoter on the FOMC this year) speaks on the economic outlook at the Economic Forecast Project at UC-Santa Barbara .

Non-U.S.:

China -- U.S.-China strategic and economic dialogue (to May 4).

Euro zone -- ECB interest-rate decision for May and press conference.

Euro zone -- March producers price index.

U.K. -- April services PMI index.

Friday

8:25 a.m. -- San Francisco Fed President Williams delivers the keynote speech at the California Bankers Association's 121st annual convention.

8:30 a.m. -- U.S. nonfarm payrolls will likely expand by 175,000 in April, after a disappointing 120,000 increase in March. Private and manufacturing payrolls are expected to increase by 178,000 and 20,000, respectively. This would imply a 23,000 decline in public payrolls. The unemployment rate will likely remain unchanged at 8.2 percent, with average hourly earnings increasing 0.2 percent and hours worked holding at 34.5.

10:30 a.m. -- Economic Cycle Research Institute Weekly Leading Index (WLI).

Non-U.S.:

Spain -- April services PMI index.

Italy -- April services PMI index.

France -- Final reading on April services PMI index.

Germany -- Final reading on April services PMI index.

Euro zone -- Final reading on April composite PMI index and services PMI index.

Euro zone -- March retail sales.

Dates and times are subject to change.

Source: Central banks, European Commission, Reuters, Market News, Barclays Capital, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

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