October Jobs Report, ISM, Auto And Same-Store Sales: Economic Events For Oct 29-Nov 2

on October 28 2012 4:44 PM
Jobs Report
What does January's jobs report mean for the Fed? Reuters

We start the week of Halloween with the personal income and spending report on Monday and finish with the October jobs report on Friday -- just four days before the U.S. general elections.

Economists’ projections point to an uninspiring rise in headline payrolls of about 123,000, only slightly better than the disappointing 114,000 job gains recorded in September. The unemployment rate, which unexpectedly fell to 7.8 percent in September, is expected to tick up to 7.9 percent in October.

Other highlights of the week include the latest readings on the Institute for Supply Management, or ISM, manufacturing index, same-store sales, and auto sales on Thursday.

In Europe, key data releases will be Spanish gross domestic product for the third quarter, the European Commission's euro-zone survey, and euro-zone unemployment. None of them is expected to bring good news.

Market participants will also be closely monitoring statements due from the Bank of Japan on Tuesday.

Given the economy's weakness and the changes in the political environment, Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists anticipate that the BOJ will ease further at its policy meeting that day by expanding its asset-purchase program.

“If the BOJ really does so, the move could be seen as the start of a change in its policy stance,” the economists noted, adding that the BOJ will need to consider additional easing in December or January, when the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to expand its own quantitative-easing program, aka QE3.

Below are entries on the economic calendar between Oct. 29 and Nov. 2. All listed times are EDT.

Monday

8:30 a.m. -- Economists expect personal income to rise 0.4 percent and spending to surge 0.6 percent in September, implying a decline in the saving rate. The core personal consumption expenditure price deflator is expected to rise a rather soft 0.1 percent in September.

8:30 a.m. -- The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index for September.

10:30 a.m. -- The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Texas manufacturing outlook survey for October.

Non-U.S.:

Spain -- Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy meets Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti in Madrid.

Spain -- Adjusted retail sales for September.

Germany -- September retail sales.

Sweden -- September retail sales.

Japan -- September unemployment rate.

Japan -- September industrial production.

Tuesday

9 a.m. -- The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices report is likely to show that monthly price gains continued in August. Economists look for the 20-city seasonally adjusted index to increase 0.4 percent from the prior month, leaving prices up 1.9 percent on a year-over-year basis. The 20-city index has posted sharp increases in six straight months.

10 a.m. -- Consumer confidence picked up significantly in the University of Michigan’s preliminary October survey, rising to 83.1 from 78.3 in the final September report. Economists look for a similar uptick in the Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence, to 72.5 after a 70.3 print in September.

10:30 a.m. -- The Dallas Fed's Texas service-sector outlook survey for October.

12:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley (a voter on the Federal Open Market Committee) speaks on the economic outlook and local economic conditions before the Fairfield County Business Council in Connecticut.

8 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota (a nonvoter on the FOMC this year) gives the opening remarks before a public town hall forum in Minnesota.

Non-U.S.:

Japan -- BOJ target rate.

India -- Reserve Bank of India repo rate.

Euro zone -- European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks at a conference of the Macro-Prudential Research Network, or MaRs, of the European System of Central Banks in Frankfurt, Germany.

Euro zone -- October consumer confidence, final reading.

Euro zone -- October industrial confidence index.

Spain -- Preliminary October harmonized index of consumer prices, or HICP.

Spain -- Budget, year-to-date.

Spain -- Preliminary 3Q GDP.

Ukraine -- 3Q GDP.

Korea -- September industrial production.

Wednesday

7 a.m. -- Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Applications Survey results for the week ending Oct. 27.

8:15 a.m. -- ADP private payrolls are set to advance by 140,000 in October, following their 162,000 increase in the prior month. ADP recently announced it had made changes to its private job market report as part of a new partnership with Moody's Analytics. The report will use a larger sample size and new methodology to put it more in line with the final revised readings from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Whether this change represents an improvement to the ability of ADP to forecast payrolls figures remains to be seen.

8:30 a.m. -- The employment cost index probably rose 0.5 percent in the third quarter.

9:30 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Board Gov. Sarah Bloom Raskin (a voter on the FOMC) gives the welcoming remarks before the Maryland Asset Building and Community Development Network's annual meeting.

9:45 a.m. -- The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, or PMI, fell below 50 last month after an extended period when it had been running well above the other regional manufacturing surveys. Economists look for a modest rebound in October to 51 after the reading of 49.7 in September.

12:45 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams (a voter on the FOMC this year) speaks on "Monetary Policy and the Economy" before the New York Forecasters Club.

Non-U.S.:

Euro zone -- ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure speaks at keynote session in Japan.

Euro zone -- ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio speaks on Banking Union.

Euro zone -- October flash HICP.

Euro zone -- September unemployment rate.

Italy -- September unemployment rate.

Italy -- October preliminary HICP, consumer price index.

Norway -- October interest-rate announcement.

U.K. -- GfK consumer confidence for October.

Belgium -- Preliminary 3Q GDP.

Korea -- October CPI.

Thursday

TBA -- Economists expect vehicle sales to rise to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15 million in October.

7:30 a.m. -- October Challenger job cuts.

8:30 a.m. -- Economists look for initial jobless claims to come in at 370,000 for the week ending Oct. 27. In the prior week, initial jobless claims were 369,000.

8:30 a.m. -- Nonfarm business productivity, measured as output per hour, is expected to rise 1.5 percent in the third quarter. The unit labor costs should rise 1.2 percent annualized in the quarter.

8:58 a.m. -- The Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI for October.

10 a.m. -- Economists forecast a 0.7 percent gain in construction spending in September, driven by the residential housing market. The indicator contracted by 0.6 percent in August.

10 a.m. -- Economists expect the ISM manufacturing index to edge down to 51.4 in October after rebounding to 51.5 in the prior month. Before September’s release, the ISM manufacturing index had come in below the 50-breakeven level for three consecutive months.

12:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart (a voter on the FOMC this year) speaks before the Chattanooga Downtown Rotary in Tennessee.

5:00 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren (a nonvoter on the FOMC this year) speaks on the economic outlook before an event hosted by the Babson College Stephen D. Cutler Center for Investments and Finance in Massachusetts.

Non-U.S.:

Russia -- November overnight deposit rate and repo rate.

Czech -- November repo-rate announcement.

Ireland -- October HICP.

Korea -- October exports.

Australia -- 3Q export and import prices.

China -- October National Bureau of Statistics manufacturing PMI.

China -- October HSBC manufacturing PMI.

Thailand -- October CPI.

Japan -- October auto sales.

U.K. -- October manufacturing PMI.

Ireland -- October unemployment rate.

Friday

8:30 a.m. -- The October employment report should show uninspiring job growth with nonfarm payrolls advancing 123,000 and the unemployment rate heading back to 7.9 percent. Manufacturing jobs likely contracted by 3,000 in October, after shrinking by 16,000 in September. Wage growth probably remained soft. Economists forecast average hourly earnings to increase 0.2 percent from the prior month and the average workweek to be unchanged at 34.5 hours.

9:45 a.m. -- U.S. ISM New York regional business activity index for October.

10 a.m. -- Economists expect factory orders to increase by 4.2 percent in September, largely offsetting the 5.2 percent decline in August.

12:40 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Board Gov. Daniel Tarullo (a voter on the FOMC) speaks on "Regulation of Foreign Banking Organizations" before the Sullivan & Cromwell Conference on Challenges in Global Financial Services in Connecticut.

2:25 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams (a voter on the FOMC this year) speaks in Utah on the economic outlook before a community leaders luncheon hosted by the San Francisco Fed's Seattle branch.

Non-U.S.:

Romania -- Interest-rate announcement.

Sweden -- October manufacturing PMI.

Spain -- October manufacturing PMI.

Switzerland -- October manufacturing PMI.

Italy -- October manufacturing PMI.

France -- October manufacturing PMI, final reading.

Germany -- October manufacturing PMI, final reading.

Euro zone -- October manufacturing PMI, final reading.

Sources: Central banks, European Commission, Reuters, Market News, Capital Economics, Barclays, Bank of America Merrill Lynch. 

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