Pimco's Bill Gross says a new recession in the U.S. is likely.
Gross is manager of the world's largest bond fund. He says the decline in U.S. Treasury yields to 60-year lows reflects a high probability of a new recession, or a double-dip, in America.
It is increasingly apparent to us that policy options are limited and that economic growth is slowing down, said Gross, who oversees $1.2 trillion as co-chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., or PIMCO, in an interview with Reuters Insider television.
The U.S. economy has officially been out of recession for two years, but fear of a new recession have grown amid reports the economy is barely growing at all and consistently high unemployment, remaining above nine percent.
Recession is not inevitable, but I think there's better than a 50-50 chance, said Gross, in the Los Angeles Times.
Last week investment bank Morgan Stanley warned in a research note that the U.S. and euro zone are dangerously close to recession. Morgan Stanley cut its U.S. GDP forecast.
There's no doubt that growth from the standpoint of employment or unemployment and growth from the standpoint of corporate profits is definitely a risk -- whether or not we see a positive 1 percent real GDP number I think is besides the point, Gross said.
Gross told Reuters that low Treasury yields at 1.98 for a 10-year U.S. Treasury note signal recessionary conditions.
They certainly reflect, in terms of yields, not only a potential for a recession but the almost high probability of recession and the result of lowering of inflation -- that is a key, he said.