Mitt Romney couldn't have settled for anything less than a blowout victory in Florida's Republican presidential primary that would retain his edge over the GOP rivals in their fight to win the party's nomination to face incumbent President Barack Obama.
Notwithstanding the fact that the Florida primary was only fourth in the series of state-by-state contests to pick the Republican nominee, and that things could change beyond popular expectations by the election date in November, Mitt Romney vs. President Obama looks highly probable at the moment.
President Obama was clearly not what he promised to be when he was elected for his first term in the White House. But for some odd reason, all that GOP has to offer is Romney and surprisingly he isn't good enough to beat a President with historically low public approval ratings.
Here is why Romney can't beat the President:
1. Stubborn Anti-Romney Republican Vote - Romney's campaign strategy has worked well in distancing him from the Tea Partiers and other conservatives, turning them stubbornly anti-Romney. Turning around the non-Romney vote, which is a staggering 60 percent among the Republican voters, is crucial for him to beat the President. However, he is still thriving on the divide and rule strategy, and doesn't seem to be capable of wooing the conservatives.
2. Ron Paul is Dangerous...If Independent - Ron Paul has refused to rule out running as a third party candidate if he doesn't win the Republican nomination. If he does, that could be the single most major third party candidacy in the U.S. political history, with far-reaching consequences. The libertarian Congressman from Texas, with his superhero appeal among the youth, could possibly overturn the presidential verdict, much to the chagrin of the Republicans. Paul's appeal can guarantee to siphon off at least 5 percent the Republican vote, if not more, which is enough to re-elect Obama.
3. Obama is a Better Debater & Campaigner - Gingrich may not be able to beat Obama or even win the GOP nomination. However, he definitely would prove to be a better challenger for Obama during the presidential debates. Romney, on the other hand, lacks the confidence and unflappability that the President exudes while on a debate platform. He also lacks the critical and deep-thinking traits that Obama and Gingrich possess, which shape their arguments much more professionally.
4. Falling Unemployment Will Favor Obama - The unemployment rate is still at recession levels, but there definitely is a sense that things are on the mend, owing to its steady decline. Unemployment was 8.7 percent in November 2011, down from 9.8 percent in November 2010 and is expected to fall further by the Election Day. Even though the percentage of unemployment remains high, its falling trend is believed to work in favor of the President, when comparing to similar instances from history. Presidents Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon were re-elected during a downward unemployment trend (despite high unemployment percentage), while Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush were hurt from rising unemployment (despite relatively low unemployment percentage).
5. Obligatory Race Politics - Like it or not, the race card would definitely play a major role in the presidential election as much as it did the last time. Obama may have lost the overall support of the public, including that of the African-Americans. However, once the GOP candidate is nominated, the election rhetoric most definitely will not proceed without Romney being pitted against America's first black President. Romney, unlike Paul, doesn't have any tainted records to be labeled a racist, but the traditional Mormon attitude towards blacks and Jews will most certainly be brought up during the campaign in favor of Obama.