Retail Sales, FOMC Minutes, Euro Zone Q3 GDP: Economic Events For Nov. 12-16

 @moranzhang
on November 13 2012 10:52 AM
FOMC
The January FOMC meeting offers the first glimpse of a new lineup of policymakers. Reuters

Market participants face a very crowded economic release calendar.

The release of October's retail sales and industrial production data and the early regional manufacturing surveys for November will give us a first insight into how badly Superstorm Sandy hit the economy.

The storm shut stores and businesses, resulting in fewer selling days. However, it also front-loaded spending on certain necessary goods which were bought in preparation of the storm. Auto sales are likely to be weak, while gasoline station sales should also decline with fewer cars on the road and power outages, which left many gas stations unable to pump gas.

The two-day FOMC meeting that concluded on Oct. 24 was a relatively quiet one. After unveiling a new open-ended program of mortgage-backed securities and strengthening its forward-looking rate guidance at the meeting before in August, the Fed made no major changes in October. Nevertheless, the minutes released this Wednesday may reveal a little more about what the next steps the Fed is contemplating.

In the euro area, this is a hectic week dominated by third-quarter gross domestic product releases. The hard data and surveys are giving mixed signals, but economists expect a small fall in euro zone GDP to mean that the region is now officially in recession. Germany will probably be the only major economy to register positive growth.

The Bank of England inflation report, Eurogroup and the Economic and Financial Affairs (Ecofin) meetings will also attract much attention.

Below are entries on the economic calendar between Nov. 12 and Nov. 16. All listed times are EST.

Tuesday

2:00 p.m. – Treasury budget balance. Economists look for a deficit of $114 billion in October, the first month of fiscal year 2013. This would represent a modest year-on-year increase in receipts, a trend which has persisted throughout 21 of the past 24 months. There will also be some payback in growth in outlays after a large year-on-year decline in September that was partly due to shifting of certain payment dates.

2:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (FOMC voter) attends an open session of a Financial Stability Oversight Council meeting in which proposed recommendations regarding money market mutual fund reform pursuant to the Council’s authority under section 120 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act will be discussed. Watch live webcast here.

3:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Vice Chair Janet Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks on "Central Bank Communications" before a Dean's Speaker Series event hosted by the University of California at Berkeley Haas School of Business.

Non-U.S.:

E27 -- The Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) meeting.

Portugal -- Central Bank Governor Carlos Costa speaks at the Economists' Association in Lisbon.

Chile -- Overnight rate target.

Italy – October HICP, final reading.

Italy – October CPI, final reading.

U.K. – October CPI, final reading.

U.K. – October input/output prices.

Wednesday

7:00 a.m. -- The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Mortgage Index for the week ending Nov. 10.

8:30 a.m. – The retail sales report in October will likely be distorted by Hurricane Sandy which hit the Northeast coastline at the end of the month. Economists expect total sales to decline 0.2 percent but for core control (ex-autos, gasoline, building materials) to increase 0.4 percent. Outside of the hurricane, economists believe that iPhone sales will likely boost activity yet again in October. Early sales in September led to a 4.5 percent pop in electronic store sales, adding 0.2 percentage points to core control retail sales. Elsewhere, sales are likely to be weak, consistent with disappointing chain store sales.

8:30 a.m. -- After two straight months of strong gains, producer prices of finished goods likely rose a modest 0.2 percent in October. Outside of food and energy, core producer prices likely rose 0.1 percent monthly in October, after surprisingly registering no change in September. Against year-ago levels, headline PPI should rise 2.6 percent while core PPI should climb 2.5 percent.

10:00 a.m. – Business inventories likely rose 0.5 percent in September, after advancing 0.6 percent in August.

2:00 p.m. – The minutes of the Oct. 23-24 FOMC meeting are likely to reveal much discussion about future Fed policy, but no resolutions. Markets will look for hints about what balance sheet policies might follow the conclusion of Operation Twist in December. Economists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch expect most members to support outright asset purchases provided the outlook warrants it. They also look for a lengthy discussion of what should replace the calendar guidance on interest rates. Markets will also look for the results of the second experiment with reporting a consensus forecast for the FOMC. However, there is a significant chance that this will be unveiled at the December FOMC meeting as part of an updated Summary of Economic Projections.

2:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Division of Banking Supervision and Regulation Director Michael Gibson testifies on Basel III before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee.

8:50 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams (FOMC voter) gives a lecture on the economic outlook in California.

Non-U.S.:

Ireland -- Medium term fiscal statement.

Greece -- General strike against austerity measures called by European trade union confederation.

U.K. – Bank of England inflation report.

E17 – European Central Bank Executive board member Joerg Asmussen speaks at Risk management conference in Mainz.

France – October HICP, CPI.

U.K. – September ILO unemployment rate.

U.K. – October claimant count unemployment.

U.K. – September average weekly earnings, core average earnings.

E17 – September industrial production.

Brazil – September economic activity index.

Thursday

8:30 a.m. -- A modest uptick in food prices should serve as an offset to a decline in energy prices, leading to a 0.1 percent monthly increase in the headline CPI in October. Against year-ago levels, economists expect headline CPI inflation to increase 2.1 percent. Stripping out the volatile food and energy components, core CPI is likely to rise a strong 0.1 percent in October, similar to the increase recorded for September. Annual core CPI inflation should thus rise to 2 percent.

8:30 a.m. -- Economists look for initial jobless claims to surge to 375,000 for the week of Nov. 10, up from 355,000 in the prior week.

8:30 a.m. -- The Empire manufacturing survey is expected to decline to -6.7 in November from its current level of -6.2. In last month's survey, the forward-looking components turned slightly less negative suggesting a slight upside to this month's reading. However, Hurricane Sandy caused severe power outages and gas shortages in the region. In addition, some of the respondents may have had damage to their facilities. Overall, this will have a negative impact on businesses in the region suggesting that the Empire survey will decline.

9:00 a.m. -- Richmond Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker (FOMC voter) speaks on the economic outlook before the West Virginia Economic Outlook Conference hosted by the West Virginia University College of Business.

10:00 a.m. – Economists look for the Philly Fed index to fall to 2 in November down from its current level of 5.7. Forward-looking components, like the new orders index, weakened in last month's report suggesting declining output this month. Some of the respondents may have had damage to their facilities due to Hurricane Sandy.

10:40 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans (FOMC non-voter) gives welcome remarks before the Fifteenth Annual International Banking Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

1:20 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (FOMC voter) speaks on "Housing and Mortgage Markets" before the HOPE Global Financial Dignity Summit hosted by Operation Hope in Georgia. Watch the event live here.

2:45 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher (FOMC non-voter) speaks on "The West is the Best (Except for ...)" before the State of the West Symposium sponsored by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research and the Bill Lane Center for the American West in California.

4:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser (FOMC non-voter) speaks before the CATO Institute "Money, Markets and Government: The Next 30 Years" conference in Washington D.C.

8:15 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans (FOMC non-voter) gives introductory remarks before the Fifteenth Annual International Banking Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.

Non-U.S.:

France -- Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici and central bank Governor Christian Noyer speaks at a conference about "How to Finance the Economy" in Paris.

E17 -- European Central Bank Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen speaks at an event hosted by German insurer GDV in Berlin.

E17 -- ECB publishes monthly bulletin.

France – Q3 GDP, preliminary results.

Germany – Q3 GDP, preliminary results.

U.K. – October retail sales.

E17 – Q3 GDP, preliminary results.

E17 – October HICP, final reading.

Friday

9:15 a.m. – Industrial production likely increased 0.2 percent in October from the prior month. Capacity utilization will probably stay flat at 78.3 percent.

3:45 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart (FOMC voter) speaks before the 5th Annual University of Virginia Investment Conference.

Non-U.S.:

Portugal -- Central Bank Governor Carlos Costa speaks at a conference on Portugal's economic development in Lisbon.

Singapore – Q3 GDP, final reading.

E17 – ECB current account for September.

E17 – September trade balance.

Mexico – September economic activity index.

 

Sources: Central banks, European Commission, Reuters, Market News, Capital Economics, Barclays, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

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