Is Trump Or Biden Leading In Ohio, Florida? What Polls Show About Swing States On Day Before Election

Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in the key battleground states of Florida and Ohio, according to a Quinnipiac University survey released Monday. Both states will likely be called on election night Tuesday, as they are already processing absentee ballots.

In Florida, Biden has a 5-point lead over Trump, 47%-42%. The Florida survey of 1,657 likely voters was conducted from Oct. 28- Nov. 1, and has a margin of error of 2.4 points.

"Florida, Florida, Florida. There is some confidence that the votes will be counted in time to declare a winner Tuesday night. As the hottest summer in years lingers, both sides sweat out a final tally that, if it goes Biden's way, could make the rest of the vote count all but irrelevant," Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said about the survey.

The Cook Political Report rates Florida, which has 29 electoral votes, as a “toss up.” Trump won Florida in 2016 against Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, 49% to 47.8%.

Trump’s home state is Florida, and his campaign has sought to win over Latino voters by claiming that Biden would enact socialist policies. President Barack Obama shot back at that argument on Monday at an event for Biden in Miami.

"Here in South Florida, you see these ads -- 'Joe palling with communists, palling with socialists' -- you'd think he was having coffee with Castro every morning. Don't fall for that... Trump said this, he said Putin, Xi, Kim Jong Un, they want him to win. Yes, we know!” Obama said at the event.

In Ohio, Biden has a 4-point lead over Trump, 47% to 43%. The Ohio survey of 1,440 likely voters was also conducted from Oct. 28-Nov. 1, and has a margin of error of 2.6 points.

"In a state that's picked the winner of every presidential race since 1964, Ohio is a close race on the eve of Election Day 2020. Donald Trump easily won the state in 2016, but is losing some ground in the final stretch to Joe Biden," Quinnipiac polling analyst Mary Snow said about the Ohio survey.

Cook rates Ohio, which has 18 electoral votes, as “lean Republican.” In 2016, Trump held off Clinton in Ohio, 51.6% to 43.5%.

At a campaign speech Monday in Cleveland, Biden emphasized that Ohioans can trust him.

“Ohio, in 2008 and 2012 you placed your trust in me and Barack. In 2020 I’m asking you to trust me again,” Biden said.

Trump likely needs to carry both Ohio and Florida for a reasonable path to 270 electoral votes. The last Republican incumbent, George W. Bush, carried both states in 2004.

Other swing states that Trump may need to hold are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.