US Q3 GDP Second Estimate, Fed’s Beige Book, New Home Sales: Economic Events For Nov. 26-30

 @moranzhang on November 26 2012 2:36 PM
US GDP
The US economy grew at a 2.2 percent rate in the first quarter, the U.S. Commerce Department announced Friday. That was below the 2.5 percent Bloomberg consensus estimate. REUTERS

After returning from the Thanksgiving break, market participants will face a crowded economic calendar.

In the U.S., third-quarter gross domestic product is likely to be revised up to 2.8 percent, up from the initial 2 percent estimate. However, early evidence on economic activity in the current quarter will be less encouraging. October's durable goods and personal income & spending reports are likely to be disappointing, with Sandy accounting for only some of the expected weakness.

Those looking for better news can look forward to the S&P/Case-Shiller gauge of home prices, which is expected to edge 0.4 percent higher in September, placing the year-on-year growth rate at 2.9 percent.

Also the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book -- aka the "Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions by Federal Reserve District" – Wednesday, in advance of its Dec. 11-12 policy meeting.

Meanwhile, this week’s key economic data releases out of Europe will confirm that the economy is still losing momentum.

October consumer spending in France is expected to drop 0.5 percent month-on-month due to weaker confidence. Unemployment rate for the euro area is expected to tick up to 11.7 percent from 11.6 percent previously.

Elsewhere, there is a scheduled policy rate meeting this week in Thailand on Wednesday and Q3 GDP data will be released in the Philippines and India.

Below are entries on the economic calendar between Nov. 26 and Nov. 30. All listed times are EST.

Monday

No significant events or releases.

Tuesday

3:00 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher (FOMC non-voter) speaks on "Placing Financial Stability in Context" before the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Hyman P. Minsky Conference on Financial Instability in Berlin.

4:00 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of New York First Vice President Christine Cumming (FOMC non-voter)  participates in “Financial Reform Proposals” discussion before the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Hyman P. Minsky Conference on Financial Instability in Berlin.

6:30 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart (FOMC voter) speaks a luncheon at the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Hyman P. Minsky Conference on Financial Instability in Berlin.

8:30 a.m. – The uncertainty generated by the looming fiscal cliff might have prompted businesses to postpone or cancel orders in October. Superstorm Sandy may also have pushed some of October’s orders back to November. Total durable goods orders may have fallen by 0.5 percent in October from the prior month and, after excluding transportation, may have dropped by the same amount.

8:30 a.m. -- The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index for October.

8:30 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (FOMC voter) gives brief welcome remarks before the National College Fed Challenge Finals in Washington, D.C.

9:00 a.m. – Economists expect the S&P Case-Shiller home price index to rise 0.4 percent month-on-month in September, moving the index solidly into positive territory on a year-on-year basis at 2.9 percent. The 20-city index has posted increases in seven straight months and economists look for this momentum to continue.

10:00 a.m. -- The recent fall in gasoline prices probably left households slightly more upbeat. Economists look for a rise in the Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence to 73 in November, up from 72.2 in October. While this would be well below the levels seen before the start of the most recent recession, it would be the third consecutive monthly improvement and put the index at a new post-recession high. It would also be in line with the higher-than-expected preliminary print of the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment, which increased despite potential concerns surrounding Hurricane Sandy and the fiscal cliff.

10:00 a.m. – The FHFA Home Price Index likely rose to 0.4 percent in September, consistent with the improvement seen in other home price indices during the same time period. This would translate into a year-on-year increase of 4.7 percent.

10:00 a.m. – The Richmond Fed's Manufacturing Survey for November.

10:30 a.m. – The Dallas Federal Reserve Bank's monthly survey of the Texas service sector.

3:00 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit.

8:00 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks on the economic outlook before a C.D. Howe Institute Benefactors’ lecture and dinner event in Toronto.

Non-U.S.:

Portugal -- Parliament holds final vote on 2013 budget.

Hungary – Deposit rate.

U.K. – Q3 GDP, second estimate.

Wednesday

7:00 a.m. -- The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Mortgage Index for the week ending Nov. 24.

10:00 a.m. – Economists look for new home sales to rise 0.3 percent in October from the prior month to 390,000 and for supply to hold at 4.5 months, or close to pre-crisis inventory levels.

12:15 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Board Governor Daniel Tarullo (FOMC voter) speaks on "Regulation of Foreign Banking Organizations" before a Yale School of Management Leaders Forum Lecture event in New Haven.

12:50 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans (FOMC non-voter) participates in taped interview with Business News Network’s Howard Green during “Headline with Howard Green” in Toronto.

2:00 p.m. -- The U.S. Federal Reserve Board issues its Beige Book, a survey of economic conditions around the country.

Non-U.S.:

E17 -- The Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) holds press conference (tentative).

Brazil – November Selic overnight rate.

E17-- ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeuré speaks at the 3rd Pan-Asian Regulatory Summit in Hong Kong.

Thailand – November benchmark interest rate.

Germany – Preliminary results on November CPI and HICP.

E17 – October M3 money supply.

E17 – October loans to private sector.

Thursday

6:00 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher (FOMC non-voter) speaks on "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Challenges in the United States" before the "Monetary and Fiscal Challenges in the United States and the Euro Area" conference in Frankfurt.

8:30 a.m. – Data released subsequent to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ advance report suggest that real GDP expanded at an annualized clip of 2.8 percent during the summer quarter, instead of an initial estimate of 2 percent. This is likely to largely reflect stronger net trade and more inventory accumulation. Economists are also looking for modest upward revisions to residential and structures investment.

8:30 a.m. – Corporate profits in the third quarter will likely be revised higher to 2.3 percent, compared with a prior estimate of 2.2 percent.

8:30 a.m. – Economists expect initial jobless claims to edge down to 390,000 in the week ending Nov. 24, down from 410,000 in the prior week.

9:00 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley (FOMC voter) speaks at Pace University in New York.

10:00 a.m. – Pending home sales, which track signed contracts on single-family homes, condos, and co-ops, are expected to rise 0.8 percent on a monthly basis in October.

11:00 a.m. -- The Kansas City Fed's manufacturing composite index for November.

11:00 a.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of New York staff members hold media briefing to provide an update on conditions in the region’s housing market as well as an initial assessment of the regional economic impact of Superstorm Sandy. NOTE: Event will be Webcast live. Information: http://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/mediaadvisory/2012/1121_2012.html

Non-U.S.:

E17 -- ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet speaks at "Launch event for the European Datawarehouse" in Frankfurt.

E17 -- ECB Executive Board member Jörg Asmussen speaks at the German Pfandbriefbank association in Berlin.

Germany -- November unemployment change.

E17 – November final consumer confidence index.

Japan – November nationwide CPI.

Japan – October industrial production.

Friday

8:30 a.m. – Economists expect a 0.2 percent increase in personal income and a 0.1 percent rise in personal spending in October. Weakness in spending at the start of the quarter would be consistent with already published retail sales data, which hinted at a net negative effect from Hurricane Sandy. Economists therefore expect to see some positive payback later in the quarter.

9:45 a.m. -- While Hurricane Sandy was partially to blame for the soft prints in both the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing indices in November, the recent pattern of broad-based weakness in manufacturing activity surveys had started long before the hurricane hit. Economists look for a reading of 50.5 in the November Chicago PMI, which would be little changed from 49.9 in October and would be in line with the view that manufacturing activity, while not currently at risk of significant further deterioration, is also not expected to improve much in the near term.

5:00 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank President Narayana Kocherlakota and Federal Reserve Board Governor Jeremy Stein (FOMC non-voters) participate in "Evaluating Large-Scale Asset Purchases" panel before the Third Boston University/Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference on Macro-Finance Linkages in Massachusetts.

Non-U.S.:

E17 -- ECB Executive Board member Peter Praet speaks on “China meets Europe” in Hamburg.

Mexico – November overnight rate.

E17 – October unemployment rate.

E17 – November “flash” HICP.

Italy – November preliminary HICP and CPI.

 

Sources: Central banks, European Commission, Reuters, Market News, Capital Economics, Barclays, Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

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