The European Space Agency (ESA) warned that it has detected an asteroid that has a chance of colliding with Earth. The agency predicted the asteroid might hit Earth in less than three years.

The ESA identified the approaching asteroid as 2009 JF1. Based on the agency’s observations on the asteroid, it has the potential to hit Earth the next time it passes by the planet in 2022. Because of this, the ESA included the asteroid in its Risk List. According to the agency, the objects included in this list are those that have a non-zero impact probability.

As indicated in ESA’s database, 2019 JF1 might hit Earth on May 6, 2022. The agency estimated that the asteroid’s chances of hitting Earth are one in 4,400. Although it would seem the chances of an impact event happening are pretty slim, certain factors in space can alter the asteroid’s path and send it crashing to Earth.

One of the factors that can cause an impact event is a gravitational keyhole. In space, keyholes exist within the regions that are heavily affected by the gravitational pull of a large object such as a planet.

If 2009 JF1 passes through a keyhole as it makes its way towards Earth’s vicinity, it could get nudged into a collision path with the planet.

Aside from gravitational keyholes, the Yarkovsky effect can also alter an asteroid’s path. This can happen when heat from sunlight warms up one side of the asteroid. The unbalanced thermal radiation could change how the asteroid spins, eventually causing it to veer away from its original trajectory. Once this happens, the asteroid could end up on a straight path to Earth.

Fortunately, the 2009 JF1 is too small to cause a major impact event on Earth. According to the ESA, the asteroid is only about 43 feet long.

Given its size, the asteroid will most likely burn up in the Earth’s atmosphere and detonate mid-air before hitting the ground. The bulk of the explosion from the asteroid will be absorbed by the Earth’s atmosphere, causing a bright and spectacular light show in the sky.

NASA Asteroid family Mars and Jupiter
This artist concept catastrophic collisions between asteroids located in the belt between Mars and Jupiter and how they have formed families of objects on similar orbits around the sun. NASA/JPL-Caltech
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