AI Could Change The Job Market Forever. Women May Have More To Lose Than Men.

Women could face greater disruption to their careers from artificial intelligence than men, with new research showing that jobs traditionally held by women are more exposed to automation.

The risk is particularly pronounced in clerical and administrative occupations, where AI systems are increasingly capable of performing tasks such as processing information, preparing documents and organizing records.

A study by the International Labour Organization found that 9.6% of employed women in high-income countries work in occupations with the highest potential for automation, compared with 3.5% of men.

Globally, about one in four workers hold jobs with some exposure to generative AI, with clerical occupations facing the greatest potential for task automation.

The ILO cautioned that exposure does not necessarily translate into job losses. While technology can replace certain tasks, employers may also use it to change how existing jobs are performed. For women, the history of workplace technology offers examples of both outcomes.

During the first half of the 20th century, telephone operators were among the most common occupations for young American women. Before automated switching systems became widespread, operators manually connected calls, making them essential to telephone communication.

Between 1920 and 1940, AT&T replaced human operators with mechanical switching equipment across more than half of its U.S. telephone network. The change eliminated most operator positions, but its effects varied considerably between women already employed in the occupation and those entering the workforce later.

Economists James Feigenbaum and Daniel Gross examined the transition in a 2024 study published in The Quarterly Journal of Economics. Using historical employment records and differences in the timing of automation across American cities, they found that former operators were more likely to move into lower-paying occupations or leave the workforce.

A decade after automation reached their workplaces, many had not recovered their previous career positions. Younger women, however, experienced a different labor market.

As telephone operator jobs disappeared, employment expanded in clerical and service occupations, including some newly emerging categories of work.

The researchers found that automation did not reduce overall employment among subsequent generations of young women, even though it eliminated much of the work performed by operators.

Another technological change helped create more opportunities for women outside the home. The spread of household appliances, including washing machines, reduced the time needed for domestic work and made paid employment more accessible to married women.

Economists Jeremy Greenwood, Ananth Seshadri and Mehmet Yorukoglu examined that transition in their 2005 study, "Engines of Liberation," finding that improvements in household technology contributed to rising female labor force participation.

The changes occurred alongside expanding educational opportunities, shifting social expectations and growth in office and service employment.

The share of American women participating in the labor force increased from 33.9% in 1950 to 51.5% in 1980, according to historical Bureau of Labor Statistics data.

During those decades, office jobs became an important source of employment for women, particularly in secretarial, typing and administrative roles. But the arrival of personal computers would eventually transform that work as well.

Before computers became common in offices, secretaries, typists and other administrative employees handled much of the document preparation, recordkeeping and correspondence required by businesses.

The introduction of personal computers and office software allowed employees in other occupations to perform many of those tasks themselves.

Research by economists Marcus Dillender and Eliza Forsythe examined how the adoption of computer software affected office and administrative support jobs.

Their 2022 National Bureau of Economic Research paper found that a one-standard-deviation increase in office technology use reduced employment in administrative support occupations by approximately one percentage point.

The researchers also found that employers adopting new software began requiring more advanced skills, expanding some administrative roles to include tasks previously associated with higher-level office positions.

The ILO's research estimates that approximately 34% of employment in high-income countries has some exposure to generative AI, compared with about 11% in low-income countries.

Women face higher exposure partly because they account for a substantial share of employment in office-based occupations involving routine information processing.

The research also found that AI exposure varies considerably across industries and levels of education, with some professional and technical occupations increasingly affected as the technology becomes more capable.

The ILO emphasized that the eventual consequences for employment will depend on how businesses introduce AI, which tasks they automate and whether workers receive opportunities to acquire new skills.

For workers already established in their careers, the telephone operator study documented the potential cost of losing an occupation. The computerization research found that technological adoption could also increase employers' demand for more advanced skills.

The ILO's latest estimates measure the potential for AI to perform existing workplace tasks, rather than the number of jobs that will actually disappear.