Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Game 4: Prediction, Betting Odds For 2018 ALCS

Game 4 of the 2018 ALCS isn’t an elimination game for the Houston Astros, but they should probably treat it like one. The team trails the Boston Red Sox 2-1 in the series, and they would be a long shot to climb out of a 3-1 hole against a 108-win team that has home-field advantage.

Houston is favored to tie the series Wednesday night. They’ve got -150 betting odds, according to OddsShark, and Boston is a +130 underdog.

When looking at what the starters did this season, the pitching matchup certainly favors Houston. Charlie Morton brings a 3.15 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and 201 strikeouts into Wednesday’s contest, having performed like one of the AL’s best starters. Rick Porcello wasn’t nearly as effective for the Red Sox, posting a 4.28 ERA in 191.1 innings.

Of course, those aren’t the only numbers that matter, and Boston finds themselves in a good position to score a bunch of runs for a third straight game.

Porcello hasn’t pitched well against Houston’s hitters, allowing the players on the Astros’ roster to combine for a .287 batting average against him. Jose Altuve has two home runs and a 1.000 OPS in 15 at-bats against Porcello. Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa are a combined five-of-14 against the 2016 AL Cy Young winner.

Morton has actually performed worse against the hitters on Boston’s roster. They have a .341 average and a .953 OPS against Houston’s starter in 88 at-bats. Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts have totaled 11 hits in 26 at-bats.

Morton is having a career-year in 2018, and he beat the Red Sox by surrendering two runs in five innings at Fenway Park on Sept. 8. Three months prior to that start, he gave up six runs and nine hits to Boston in 5.1 innings.

Porcello has come up big for the Red Sox this postseason, winning Game 4 of the ALDS at Yankee Stadium by allowing one run and four baserunners in five innings. He’s looked sharp in two relief appearances, during which he didn’t give up a run.

We haven’t seen Morton pitch since the regular season. He tossesd three scoreless innings against the Baltimore Orioles on Sept. 30 and has only thrown four total innings over the last month. Limited by a shoulder injury, the Astros don’t seem to know what to expect in the pivotal Game 4.

“I know he feels the best he's felt in the last month or so, which is a good sign,” Astros manager A.J. Hinch said of Morton, via ESPN.com. “That's what he said (Monday). I think adrenaline will go a long way. So I think you have to watch pitch quality. I have to be prepared for him to go three innings like he did in Baltimore or if he's cruising (more than that).

“We know our players so we'll know when fatigue is starting to set in or when he's not feeling it or if he starts spraying the ball a little bit. I'll be pretty aggressive with the bullpen (Wednesday) if need be, but I don't want to doubt Charlie from the get-go and all of a sudden be looking for a problem that doesn't exist.”

That could spell trouble against the best lineup in baseball, which has scored 15 runs in the last two games. Boston has been able to get to Houston’s bullpen, where the Astros haven’t had the advantage they were expected to have.

There’s a reason the Red Sox had their best regular season in franchise history, and they’ve shown it in the playoffs with a 5-2 record against two very good teams. Boston is 3-0 on the road, and there’s a good chance that record will remain perfect heading into a possible clincher in Game 5.

Game 4 Prediction: Boston over Houston, 6-4