arrowhead weather
Kansas City Chiefs fans dance in a snow-filled parking lot while tailgating prior to the AFC Divisional Round playoff game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Indianapolis Colts at Arrowhead Stadium on January 12, 2019 in Kansas City, Missouri. Jason Hanna/Getty Images

There are several narratives to follow heading into Sunday’s AFC Championship Game in Kansas City, but the one that might have the most bearing on the game’s results is the weather. Early weather reports indicated this game could be played in conditions best described as an “arctic blast,” but new forecast data suggests the game could be slightly more tolerable.

As it stands, the game between the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots might be slightly more bearable than it originally seemed.

The hourly forecast on Weather.com for Kansas City on Sunday says the temperature will be around 26 degrees around kickoff. There is a 5 percent chance of precipitation and winds will be blowing east at speeds of 7 miles per hour.

That is significantly better than the original forecast, which suggested the kickoff temperature would have a high of 10 degrees and a low that was below zero. The National Weather Service’s original warning placed the game-time wind chill at 15 degrees below zero.

If the original forecast held, it could have been the coldest game ever played at Arrowhead Stadium. There have been two games with kickoff temperatures of 1 degree at that stadium: A contest against the Denver Broncos in 1983, and a game against the Tennessee Titans in 2016.

This might be good news for the Chiefs, as the Patriots have a nearly immaculate record in extremely cold temperatures in the Bill Belichick era. Quarterback Tom Brady is 28-5 in games that were 30 degrees or below at kickoff. He has thrown 62 touchdowns and just 18 interceptions in those games.

To the Chiefs’ credit, they still scored 31 points and largely shut down the Indianapolis Colts in last week’s divisional playoff game at Arrowhead, despite snowy conditions.