James Talarico
Democrat James Talarico has consistently polled well in Texas.

The Senate map continues to expand for Democrats, opening up multiple potential routes to a majority.

The Democrats need a net gain of four seats in the Upper House to win a majority. This was once thought a long shot given the Senate map and the number of races in deep-red states, like Texas and Kansas, that were considered relatively safe for Republicans.

But now, with less than a month to go before the election, both of those states appear to be in play. The Cook Political Report now lists both mentioned states as "toss-up" races. Other Republican held seats now considered vulnerable include Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio.

Maine also is a toss-up race, but Republicans always expected a fight for incumbent Susan Collins. Also, Cook now considers North Carolina a likely pickup for the Democrats.

Meanwhile, the only Democratic seat listed as a toss-up is Michigan.

Republicans face a difficult national landscape, as President Trump's approval numbers continue to trend downward. Also, the Iran war remains unpopular, and gas prices - especially diesel - remain high.

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Last week, Pew Research Center published a poll that had Trump's approval at an all-time low of 30 percent, noting that the president has seen a decline among his base of supporters. Pew found that Trump's approval among verified Trump voters has fallen from 95 percent when he took office to 67 percent now. Also, 44 percent of voters said they would view their votes as an opportunity to vote against the president and his policies.

Pew also found that on the generic ballot for the House, Democrats hold an 8-point lead. They also appear to be much more fired up to vote this November.

"Democratic supporters are 14 points more likely than Republican supporters to say they have given this year's election 'a lot' of thought and 17 points more likely to say they are 'extremely motivated' to vote this year," Pew stated.

Local factors are also contributing to the Democrats' surge.

In Texas, Ken Paxton defeated longtime Republican incumbent Senator John Cornyn in a primary challenge. President Trump supported Paxton in the primary against Cornyn.

Paxton, the Texas attorney general, was always considered a somewhat risky choice for a general election because he has been dogged by scandals. In 2023, he was impeached by a Texas House committee for a variety of alleged offenses, including bribery and abuse of public trust. The impeachment included 20 articles; Paxton was acquitted after a trial in the Texas Senate.

In 2015, he was indicted on securities fraud. That case was eventually dismissed in 2025 after an agreement was reached with prosecutors. The Texas Scorecard reported that Paxton admitted no wrongdoing but agreed to complete over 100 hours of community service, 30 hours of ethics training, and to pay full restitution of about $300,000.

Several polls have shown Paxton's opponent, state legislator James Talarico, with a narrow lead or the race effectively tied. A UMass Lowell/YouGov poll late last week had each candidate at 45 percent, with 7 percent undecided.

In Kansas, incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces scrutiny following a New York Times report that he had sued 700 patients for non-payment when he was a practicing obstetrician-gynecologist. In 81 of those cases people were arrested for missed court dates.

Among the revelations was that Marshall charged 18 percent interest and garnished people's wages.

Marshall's opponent is Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist minister who has focused his campaign on energy issues, the impact of Trump's tariffs and the Iran war, and the need for data centers to pay their own way and not burden local communities.

A recent InsiderAdvantage poll had Hamilton with a narrow one-point lead in the race. Hamilton would be the first Democrat to win a Kansas Senate seat since 1932.