La Liga 2021: Spanish League Winner May Be Decided By This Match, Says Projection

Lionel Messi scored twice as Barcelona thrashed Real Sociedad 6-1 on Sunday AFP / ANDER GILLENEA

KEY POINTS

The 2020-21 La Liga has a tight race for the title
Projection site suggests that Barcelona is heavily favored to win this year
Atletico Madrid and Barcelona will face-off on May 8th

The homestretch of the 2020-21 La Liga season is shaping up to be the most exhilarating race for the Spanish football title in recent years.

Four clubs—Atlético Madrid (73) Real Madrid (71), FC Barcelona (71) and Sevilla (70)—are separated by only three points in the league table, with all still having a realistic shot of taking home the league title.

But sports probability and projection site FiveThirtyEight suggests it could all boil down to the upcoming May 8th showdown between Atletico and Barca.

Among the four powerhouses, Barcelona is projected to have a 74% chance of taking home the La Liga trophy, followed by Atletico at 16%, defending league titlists Real Madrid at 9% and Sevilla at 1%.

A dramatic increase in the probability for Barca was seen right after Atletico's shocking 2-1 defeat at the hands of Athletic Bilbao last weekend.

Assuming Barcelona wins all their remaining other games, a victory over the current league leaders would put Lionel Messi's side on top with 89 points, topping Atletico's 85.

Even a draw would suffice as that would secure 87 points to 86 for the Camp Nou-based club.

Ronald Koeman's squad is also in title form, having won six out of their last seven matches across all leagues.

In stark contrast, Luis Suárez and company only managed to rack up six wins out of their last 14 outings.

The only way for Atletico to preserve its hold of the top position is to replicate its November 2020 win against Barcelona, where Belgian Yannick Ferreira Carrasco converted late in the first half for a 1-0 victory.

Despite all of this, counting out Real Madrid in any manner is likewise seen as a bad idea. Meanwhile, Sevilla has been impressive lately as well, winning five in a row.

However, Barcelona has the luxury of having an extra game, which means the team's fate is clearly in its hands.

It will be a frenetic race to the finish and the first time since the 2015-16 edition when Barcelona edged out their rival Real Madrid with 91 points to 90 in the standings, with Atlético coming in at third (88 points).