Trump Says Venezuela Oil Deal Will Lower Gas Prices. Industry Experts Say It Wouldn’t Happen Quickly.

President Donald Trump is promoting his sweeping new oil agreement with Venezuela as a deal that could lower gasoline prices, but oil executives and energy analysts warn that the benefits Trump is promising American consumers are unlikely to arrive anytime soon.

According to a new Washington Post report, the biggest obstacle is that while Venezuela may have enormous oil reserves, getting that crude out of the ground in significant quantities will require years of work and tens of billions of dollars.

The agreement gives the U.S. government a 35 percent stake in North American Blue Energy Partners, or NABEP. This private company is securing contracts to operate 17 Venezuelan oil fields containing roughly 65 billion barrels of reserves. The United States will also receive preferential access to some of the oil produced under the arrangement.

Trump has called the agreement "THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY" and said it would "substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans." The oil market, however, did not immediately agree. Crude prices did not fall following the announcement, underscoring skepticism that the agreement will quickly add enough barrels to global supplies to affect prices meaningfully.

Venezuela's interim president, Delcy Rodríguez, has said the project aims to eventually push production from the fields above 1.5 million barrels per day. But global oil production is roughly 105 million barrels per day, meaning even a successful Venezuelan expansion would represent a relatively small portion of worldwide supply. "The barrels that could actually move a U.S. pump price are 5 to 15 years out," Tracy Shuchart, senior economist at futures trading platform NinjaTrader, wrote on X.

Another hurdle is the condition of Venezuela's oil industry. Years of underinvestment, deteriorating infrastructure, political instability and sanctions have damaged production capacity. Venezuela's crude is also particularly heavy, making it more complicated and expensive to extract, transport and refine than lighter grades.

NABEP currently produces about 200,000 barrels per day and says it wants to reach 1 million barrels daily within five years. Getting there could require nearly $100 billion in investment, according to The Post. The company has spent only about $1 billion in Venezuela so far.

The Trump administration says taxpayers will not subsidize Venezuelan oil development. Yet industry experts told The Post that U.S. government loan guarantees or other forms of financial backing could eventually be needed to convince major energy companies and investors to commit the enormous sums required.

The deal also promises to help replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. A White House fact sheet says Washington can purchase at least 20 percent of the project's production "at production cost" for the reserve.

But the SPR currently holds about 287 million barrels, far below its capacity of approximately 714 million barrels, and the limited amount of Venezuelan oil currently being produced means rebuilding it through the agreement could take years.

Political uncertainty adds another layer of risk. The White House has described the arrangement as involving 100-year contracts, while Rodríguez has publicly said the agreement lasts 25 years.