Trump-Xi Deal 'Extremely Improbable,' Says Blackstone CEO

Steve Schwarzman, chairman and CEO of The Blackstone Group, the world's largest private equity investment firm, believes no deal of significance mitigating the trade war between the U.S. and China will spring from next week’s meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

On Tuesday, Trump claimed he and Xi will have an “extended meeting” at the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan from June 28 to 29. News of the meeting sparked a Wall Street surge the same day that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average jump by more than 400 points. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ rose 1 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.

Asked if he’s optimistic something might be signed by Xi and Trump at the G20, Schwarzman replied: “I think that’s extremely improbable because there has been almost nothing happening since May when the discussions ended.”

Schwarzman also believes there’s little reason to be hopeful about the prospect of a trade deal being finalized before the end of the month. He believes Trump and Xi must first decide “how far they are willing to go conceptually” before letting senior trade officials work out the nitty gritty details of a final and binding trade agreement.

“I think the expectation of signing something is not on the table,” reiterated Schwarzman to CNBC on Wednesday.

He did, however, suggest the G20 discussions might lead to something in the future.

“This (meeting) would be a restart, you know, with a senior framework, and then you’d see what happens.”

This cautious statement echoes that of Trump administration officials and trade advisors who have repeatedly warned a potential meeting with Xi won’t result in a trade agreement on its own, but might help clear the path towards a deal.

“We have just hit a roadblock and you can see the tensions going up. I don’t think that works for anyone particularly in the business community in the short term,” said Schwarzman.

“All that’s happening with this tension is its hurting both countries and the debate of who are you hurting more is interesting but fundamentally people would like to go back to a normal relationship,” he added.

Schwarzman made these comments less than a day after two top White House officials made statements, which tantamount doomed talks between Xi and Trump.

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow on Tuesday said Trump will again demand structural changes to China's command economy, which are the same demands China has kept rejecting over the past months.

"Our position will continue to be (that) we want structural changes," insisted Kudlow.

"We want structural changes on all the items ... theft of IP, forced transfers of technology, cyber hacking. Of course trade barriers. We’ve got to have something that’s enforceable," he told reporters at the White House on Tuesday.

Kudlow’s comments were later verified by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who heads the U.S. negotiating team. Lighthizer on Tuesday said talks alone aren’t enough.

“I don’t know if it will get them to stop cheating, tariffs alone,” said Lighthizer. “I think you don’t have any other option. I know one thing that won’t work and that is talking to them. Because we’ve done that for 20 years.”