When Will Joel Embiid Return? Injury Could Determine 76ers’ Fate Against Heat

The Philadelphia 76ers won’t have Joel Embiid for at least the first two games of their second-round playoff series against the Miami Heat. The timetable for Embiid’s return from an orbital fracture and concussion might ultimately determine which team reaches the Eastern Conference Finals.

Embiid won’t be in Miami for Game 1 and Game 2 because of the injury he suffered in Game 6 of Philadelphia’s first-round series. The center will be reevaluated Wednesday, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reports, and he could be allowed to play in either Game 3 or Game 4.

The series starts in Miami on Monday night and shifts to Philadelphia for Game 3 on Friday.

With a healthy Embiid, the 76ers have a real chance to upset the No. 1 seed Heat. If Embiid misses a significant amount of time, Philadelphia will be hard-pressed to win four games in seven tries.

Prior to the news of Embiid’s injury being released, the 76ers had +150 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to win the series. Amid the uncertainty of Embiid’s return, Philadelphia has +240 odds a few hours before Game 1.

Embiid is expected to finish no worse than third in the 2022 NBA MVP voting. In Philadelphia’s first-round series win against the Toronto Raptors, Embiid led the 76ers with 26.2 points and 11.3 rebounds per game on 52.0% shooting.

Even before Embiid was struck in the face by Pascal Siakam’s elbow and ruled out for Game 1 and Game 2, the center was dealing with an injury. Embiid suffered torn ligaments in his thumb during the first round that will require offseason surgery.

The thumb injury didn’t stop Embiid from recording 33 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks on 12-18 shooting in Philadelphia’s Game 6 clincher. If Embiid is cleared to play in the second round, he’ll likely be forced to wear a mask to protect his eye.

Embiid is expected to clear concussion protocol soon, according to Wojnarowski.

In the regular season, the 76ers outscored their opponents by 7.5 points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the court. When Embiid was off the court, Philadelphia was outscored by four points per 100 possessions.

The 76ers have a 6-8 record without Embiid. Philadelphia went 45-23 when Embiid played in the regular season.

James Harden will likely become the focal point of Philadelphia’s offense for as long as Embiid is sidelined. Harden averaged 19.0 points, 10.2 assists and 5.0 rebounds per game in the first round.

Heat point guard Kyle Lowry will miss Game 1 with a hamstring injury.