Herman Cain holds an astounding 20-point lead over Mitt Romney in a poll of Republican primary voters released Thursday, and he is in a statistical tie with President Obama.
The IBOPE Zogby poll, conducted Oct. 3-5, found that 38 percent of Republicans would vote for Cain, a Georgia businessman, if the primary elections were held today. Mitt Romney had 18 percent support, and Rick Perry and Ron Paul were tied with 12 percent support each.
The rest of the candidates were in the low single digits, with Newt Gingrich and Jon Huntsman claiming 4 percent support each, Michele Bachmann 3 percent, Rick Santorum one percent, and Gary Johnson less than one percent.
Cain received 46 percent to Obama's 44 percent in a hypothetical matchup. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, making the race a statistical tie.
Seismic Shift in 2012 GOP Race
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The poll reflects a seismic shift since the last debate on Sept. 22. Before that debate, Perry led almost all polls, and Romney was consistently in second place.
But voters were angered by Perry's statement that the children of illegal immigrants should be eligible for in-state tuition at public colleges and universities in Texas, and especially by his harsh characterization of anyone who disagreed with that stance: "I don't think you have a heart."
In polls conducted since then, support for Perry has dropped by more than 10 percentage points. His fall made Romney the front-runner by default, but Republican voters have been far from passionate about the former Massachusetts governor, so they began to look for another alternative.
And so Cain surged from the back of the field to the first tier. First, a Fox News poll showed him in third place, behind Romney and Perry. Then, on Tuesday, a Washington Post-ABC News poll showed him tied with Romney for first place. And at the end of the week, the Zogby poll came out with him 20 points ahead.
"Cain really picked up a lot of those that were leaning Perry," Corry Schiermeyer, senior vice president for corporate relations at Zogby, told IBTimes. "With Cain actually being reported on more, his profile has risen over the past few weeks, and the more people have learned, the more they have gone toward him."
Schiermeyer attributed the difference between the Zogby results and the results of other recent polls to the fact that Zogby polled only "self-identified likely Republican voters." Some polls include Republicans who may not be likely to vote, or both Republicans and independents, which leads to different numbers.
To say Cain's lead is impressive would be an understatement, but his popularity in national polls may not be indicative of his chances of winning the nomination, David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston, said in an interview with IBTimes.
Which Primary Will Mean More: New Hampshire or Texas?
"We don't have a national Republican primary, [but] when you look at a national Republican primary poll, a state like Texas, where Cain is showing more strength, is going to have much more weight than states like Iowa and New Hampshire," Paleologos said. "I think that can be deceiving, given that the early primaries have so much more media attention and really get a chance to springboard a candidate into the national spotlight."