Yemen Goes to Polls Today: Will New Regime Help U.S. Fight al-Qaeda Better?

"Tuesday's presidential election in Yemen will not end the country's unrest nor bring al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) closer to defeat. While American efforts seem to be focused on facilitating the transition of power to a Yemeni government that will fight AQAP, this requires a willing and able partner," the American Enterprise Institute said in a statement.

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Will the U.S. have an able partner in Yemen after the election?

The U.S. recognized early enough that Yemen was the hotbed of terror recruitment and joined hands with Saleh -- a hated dictator -- and he gave the U.S. unlimited powers to carry out counter-terrorism activities.

Will the U.S. continue to get this kind of freedom under the incoming political dispensation? Chances are, it may not, given the nature of the popular protest that helped remove Saleh. This would certainly be an unpopular move by the new government, and it remains to be seen how far will Sana'a stretch its abilities in terms of counter-terrorism operations.

AQAP Gains

The al-Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) made considerable gains in Yemen in the past year owing to the popular anti-government protests. The AQAP cashed in on the chaos and popular disgust over a largely self-serving 30-year regime of a "puppet of the Americans".

In the last 10 years of close Yemeni-U.S. partnership in fighting al-Qaeda in the peninsula, the terror network was not rooted out. Though theU.S. drone strikes routinely killed al-Qaeda leaders and blew up terror cells, the network was still able to plot and carry out attacks. Two of the biggest recent plots were the attempt to bomb cargo planes in October 2010 and the plot to bring down Northwest Airlines Flight 253 from Amsterdam to Detroit on Christmas Day 2009.

Yemen has been grappling with two major insurgencies, the al-Houthi separatist movement in the North and the al-Qaeda-led movement in the Southern region. In the run-up to the election, militants linked to the AQAP have maintained considerable sway in south Yemen while in North Yemen the al-Houthi movement is engaged in fierce fighting with the Sunni tribesmen and the Salafists.

In January al Qaeda-linked militants captured control of Rada'a, which is just 100 miles from Sana'a, a daring act that helped the AQAP expand their control in Southern Yemen. After capturing Rada'a, the militants said they now aimed at creating an Islamic Caliphate and liberating the Arabian Peninsula.

Yemenis' march towards polling booths is inspired by a faith in change, and not entirely based on realistic chances of effecting it.