At the Golden Globe Awards presentation this Sunday, all eyes will be on Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck, Golden Globe best director nominees who were both surprisingly snubbed by Academy Award voters.
This year, for the first time, the Oscar nominations were announced ahead of the Golden Globe Awards broadcast. But from a vindication standpoint, the earlier time frame won't make a difference, as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association voting deadline was on Wednesday, the day before the Academy Award choices were announced.
Given these shifts in timing, we anticipate in the future a bit more of a divide between the winners of Oscars and Golden Globes. This year, already, "Beasts of the Southern Wild" got four Oscar nominations after a wholesale Golden Globes snub. And with the Golden Globes winners list no longer able to influence Oscar nominations, will Hollywood Foreign Press voters be more inclined to go rogue? So, here are our predictions for tomorrow night's festivities, preceded by the list of nominees in each category.
Best Picture: Drama
Nominees: "Argo,” “Django Unchained,” “Life of Pi,” “Lincoln," “Zero Dark Thirty.”
Predicted winner: "Lincoln" is our pick for the likely and most deserving winner, but by a slim margin. There is no film in this category that does not deserve some recognition. We think the two CIA dramas will cancel each other out, that "Django Unchained" was probably be a bit too much for the Hollywood Foreign Press -- although we loved it! -- and that "Life of Pi" just doesn't quite stack up to "Lincoln."
Best Picture: Comedy or Musical
Nominees: "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel," "Les Miserables," "Moonrise Kingdom," "Salmon Fishing in the Yemen," "Silver Linings Playbook."
Predicted winner: While it would be wonderful to see "Moonrise Kingdom" take this one home, we think the Globe will go to "Les Miserables." Meh.
Ben Affleck, "Argo," Kathryn Bigelow, "Zero Dark Thirty," Ang Lee, "Life of Pi," Steven Spielberg, "Lincoln," Quentin Tarantino, "Django Unchained."
Predicted winner: This is a tough one, and we feel like we really can't narrow the pool down further than Affleck, Spielberg, and Bigelow -- the latter having a bit of a disadvantage because of the controversy surrounding "Zero Dark Thirty," particularly the complaints about it providing a less-than-honest portrayal of whether torture by the CIA played a big role in capturing Osama Bin Laden. Also, well, Bigelow isn't a man. We're going with Affleck, but it's probably anybody's game.
Best Actor: Drama
Nominees: Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln," Richard Gere, "Arbitrage," John Hawkes, "The Sessions," Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master," Denzel Washington, "Flight."
Predicted winner: Daniel Day-Lewis, with a possible and well-deserved spoiler from John Hawkes, who was inexplicably overlooked by the Academy.
Best Actress: Drama
Nominees: Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty," Marion Cotillard, "Rust & Bone," Helen Mirren, "Hitchcock," Naomi Watts, "The Impossible," Rachel Weisz, "The Deep Blue Sea."
Predicted winner: Naomi Watts (we hope.) Chastain, too, has a good chance because of all the hype that she tends to generate, but we think Weisz would be the more legit spoiler.
Best Actress: Comedy or Musical
Nominees: Emily Blunt, "Salmon Fishing In The Yemen," Judi Dench, "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel," Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook," Maggie Smith, "Quartet," Meryl Streep, "Hope Springs."
Predicted winner: Lawrence is considered a near-lock for any acting award she is nominated for this year – and, frankly, we don't quite understand it. Possible spoilers are the always-deserving Dench and Streep. We'd love to see Streep accept yet another award she would have been happy to see go to someone else -- the tone of her acceptance speeches has been fun to watch in recent years. She's all, “Guys, aren't you tired of me yet?” Answer: Never.
Best Actor: Comedy or Musical
Nominees: Jack Black, "Bernie," Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook," Hugh Jackman, "Les Miserables," Ewan McGregor, "Salmon Fishing In The Yemen," Bill Murray, "Hyde Park On Hudson."
Predicted winner: Jackman will probably win, although Cooper -- who has the best chance of edging him out -- deserves it more, assuming one is considering the performance itself instead of the prep that went into it. But we've seen that both the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and the Academy love to reward actors for torturing themselves, and Jackman reportedly went without food and water for nearly two days during filming. Brave little soldier.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Amy Adams, "The Master," Sally Field, "Lincoln," Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables," Helen Hunt, "The Sessions," Nicole Kidman, "The Paperboy."
Predicted winner: Anne Hathaway, obviously.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Alan Arkin, "Argo," Leonardo DiCaprio, "Django Unchained," Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master," Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln,"Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained."
Predicted winner: Tommy Lee Jones. Christoph Waltz was even better, and is the likely spoiler, but two nominees from the same film can sometimes cancel each other out (or at least that's we've been conditioned to believe.)
Best Foreign-Language Film
Nominees: "Amour," "A Royal Affair," "The Intouchables," "Kon-Tiki," "Rust and Bone."
Predicted winner: "Amour," which deserves it. "The Intouchables" is the most likely spoiler.
Nominees: "Zero Dark Thirty," "Lincoln," "Django Unchained," "Argo," "Silver Linings Playbook."
Predicted winner: It's between "Zero Dark Thirty" and "Django Unchained" (we think?), slight edge to Mark Boal for using less offensive language than Quentin Tarantino did. Also, why wasn't "Moonrise Kingdom" nominated?
Best Original Score
Nominees: "Anna Karenina," "Argo," "Cloud Atlas," "Life of Pi," "Lincoln."
Predicted winner: "Lincoln," because John Williams wrote it. Possible spoiler: "Anna Karenina."
Best Animated Feature Film
Nominees: "Brave," "Frankenweenie," "Hotel Transylvania," "Rise of the Guardians," "Wreck-It-Ralph."
Predicted winner: "Frankenweenie," because everyone loves Tim Burton, right?
Best Original Score
Nominees: "For You," "Not Running Anymore," "Safe and Sound," "Skyfall," "Suddenly."
Predicted winner: "Skyfall." Adele!
On to the television awards, where things get even more interesting, via the the bizarre and shocking "Mad Men" snub and the unexpected "Homeland" Emmy sweep this summer.
Television Series: Drama
Nominees: "Breaking Bad," "Boardwalk Empire," "Downton Abbey: Season 2," "Homeland," "The Newsroom."
Predicted winner: "Breaking Bad," with "Homeland" right on its heels.
Actress in a Television Series: Drama
Nominees: Connie Britton, "Nashville," Glenn Close, "Damages," Claire Danes, "Homeland," Michelle Dockery, "Downton Abbey: Season 2," Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife."
Predicted winner: Danes, although Close should give her a run for her money, and might deserve it more. As a fellow "Homeland" fan recently pointed out, Danes' Carrie Mathison has only two emotions. Then again, Close's Patty Hewes has only one: Evil.
Actor in a Television Series: Drama
Nominees: Steve Buscemi, "Boardwalk Empire," Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad," Jeff Daniels, "The Newsroom," Jon Hamm, "Mad Men," Damian Lewis, "Homeland."
Predicted winner: Lewis. This is a very close call between Hamm, Cranston, and Lewis, who took home the Emmy. Since Hamm essentially is "Mad Men," we'll take the snub of the show to mean that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association didn't think he had his best year -- although it would soften the blow and make for a great acceptance speech. Lewis and Cranston are both deserving, but this is not a lifetime achievement award, and Lewis might also have a bit of an edge by way of his stately Britishness - after all, the "F" in HFPA stands for "Foreign."
Television Series: Comedy or Musical
Nominees: "The Big Bang Theory," "Episodes," "Girls," "Modern Family," "Smash."
Predicted winner: "Girls," with "Episodes" as a possible spoiler. Or "Modern Family."
Actress in a Television Series: Comedy or Musical
Nominees: Zooey Deschanel, "New Girl," Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "Veep," Lena Dunham, "Girls," Tina Fey, "30 Rock," Amy Poehler, "Parks And Recreation."
Predicted winner: Louis-Drefyus, with a possible spoiler being Dunham, who would give an excellent acceptance speech, no doubt. If Deschanel wins, then I'm turning off my television, forever, so you'll all have to let me know how the rest turns out.
Actor in a Television Series: Comedy or Musical
Nominees: Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock," Don Cheadle, "House Of Lies," Louis C.K., "Louie," Matt Leblanc, "Episodes," Jim Parsons, "The Big Bang Theory."
Predicted winner: Baldwin? LeBlanc probably should win, though. (Admittedly, I'm a card-carrying "Episodes" apologist -- I just love that show, and don't understand why everyone is not watching it.)
Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television
Nominees: "Game Change," "The Girl," "Hatfields & McCoys," "The Hour," "Political Animals."
Predicted winner: "Game Change."
Actress in a Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television
Nominees: Nicole Kidman, "Hemingway & Gellhorn," Jessica Lange, "American Horror Story: Asylum," Sienna Miller, "The Girl," Julianne Moore, "Game Change," Sigourney Weaver, "Political Animals."
Predicted winner: Moore, with spoilers equally likely being Kidman or Lange (even though, as the Hollywood Reporter noted, "American Horror Story" is not a miniseries!)
Actor in a Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television
Nominees: Kevin Costner, "Hatfields & McCoys," Benedict Cumberbatch, "Sherlock," Woody Harrelson, "Game Change," Toby Jones, "The Girl," Clive Owen, "Hemingway & Gellhorn."
Predicted winner: Owen, although Harrelson should win. It will probably be close, but we'll never know.
Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television
Nominees: Hayden Panettiere, "Nashville," Archie Panjabi, "The Good Wife," Sarah Paulson, "Game Change," Maggie Smith, "Downton Abbey: Season 2," Sofia Vergara, "Modern Family."
Predicted winner: Smith, with a possible spoiler being Vergara.
Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Miniseries or Motion Picture Made for Television
Nominees: Max Greenfield, "New Girl," Ed Harris, "Game Change," Danny Huston, "Magic City," Mandy Patinkin, "Homeland," Eric Stonestreet, "Modern Family."
Predicted winner: Patinkin, for the love of Pete! (We still can't over the Emmy snub.) The only acceptable alternative is Stonestreet.
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The Golden Globe Awards show, hosted by Amy Poehler and Tina Fey, will air on NBC Sunday at 8 p.m. EST.