Underdogs continue to get the better of favorites in the 2016 NFL season, going 9-5 against the spread in Week 5. In order for the trend to change in Week 6, the favorites will have to cover some large betting lines.
Five teams are favored by at least a touchdown, according to the latest point spreads. Four teams are underdogs at home, including one team with a winning record.
Below are picks against the spread for every game in Week 6, as well as updated betting odds at Las Vegas and online sportsbooks. Betting lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark.
Denver Broncos (-3) at San Diego Chargers
The Chargers keep finding different ways to lose, and it’s hard to believe they’ll find their footing against the defending Super Bowl champions. Denver suffered their first loss in Week 5, but they won their first four games by capitalizing on their opponents’ mistakes. San Diego has maybe the worst home-field advantage in football, going 3-12 against the spread in their last 15 home games. The Chargers’ offense has overachieved through five games, and it should come back to earth against an elite defense.
Prediction ATS: Denver
Cincinnati Bengals (+9) at New England Patriots
The Patriots are going to win on Sunday, and it’s just a question of by how much. Tom Brady is 48-1 against AFC teams at home since 2007 with New England’s only loss coming when the quarterback sat out the second half of a meaningless game. It could be a one-sided affair on Sunday since the Bengals don’t seem to be as good as they were a year ago. Cincinnati’s two victories have come against one-win teams, and they are 0-3 against winning teams, losing each contest by at least eight points.
Prediction ATS: New England
Baltimore Ravens (+3) at New York Giants
The Giants have been waiting for their offense to live up to expectations. But the unit has struggled through five weeks, and the team hasn’t given any reason to believe it will improve anytime soon. New York has scored more than 20 points just once in 2016, and Baltimore has allowed more than 20 points just once. That’s a bad combination for Eli Manning and the Giants, who could quickly fall out the NFC East race.
Prediction ATS: Baltimore
Pittsburgh Steelers (-7.5) at Miami Dolphins
When Pittsburgh’s offense is clicking, there are few teams that can compete with them. All four of their wins have come by at least eight points, and they’ve beaten three of their opponents by 18 points or more. With the way Miami has played this season, the Dolphins will likely be joining that group of opponents. The Dolphins have lost consecutive games by double-digits, and they are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games as underdogs of 7.5 points or more. The Steelers have covered the spread five of the last six times they’ve been favored by more than a touchdown.
Prediction ATS: Pittsburgh
Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) at Chicago Bears
It’s a matchup of two of the NFL’s worst teams, and they might not even combine for 10 wins this season. Chicago doesn't have much of a home-field advantage, and Jacksonville has just one road win since the start of the 2014 season. In situations like this, it’s best to take the points.
Prediction ATS: Jacksonville
San Francisco 49ers (+8) at Buffalo Bills
It’s hard to know what to make of the Bills. Buffalo looked like they might be one of the NFL’s worst teams in the first two weeks, but they’ve since won three games in a row. That probably means Buffalo is a .500 team. It’s why they are 1-9 in their last 10 games after consecutive wins, and they could be upset on Sunday against San Francisco and a returning Colin Kaepernick.
Prediction ATS: San Francisco
Los Angeles Rams (+3) at Detroit Lions
Coming off a big win against Philadelphia, Detroit could be in for a disappointment against Los Angeles. The Lions’ offense has been inconsistent, and they haven’t come close to matching their 39-point output from the season opener. The Rams’ offense has improved since totaling just nine points in the first two weeks, and they’ve covered the spread in four of their last five matchups against Detroit.
Prediction ATS: Los Angeles
Cleveland Browns (+7) at Tennessee Titans
The Browns are the only NFL team without a win, but they’ve shown a lot of fight against the weakest teams on their schedule. Cleveland lost by just five points to Baltimore, and Miami needed overtime to defeat the Browns. Tennessee has yet to defeat a winning team, and they don’t have much of an edge at home, where they’ve covered the spread in just three of their last 24 games.
Prediction ATS: Cleveland
Philadelphia Eagles (-2) at Washington Redskins
The Redskins only trail the Eagles by a half-game in the NFC East, but Philadelphia is clearly the better team. The Eagles have one of the NFL’s best defenses, and the Lions were fortunate to score 24 points in their Week 5 upset of Philadelphia. Washington hasn’t beaten a team of Philadelphia’s caliber during their three-game winning streak, and Kirk Cousins could be in for a long day on Sunday.
Prediction ATS: Philadelphia
Carolina Panthers (-3) at New Orleans Saints
The Panthers are favored, even though it’s unknown if Cam Newton will play on Sunday. Despite New Orleans’ struggles, their offense remains among the best in the league, and Carolina won’t be able to keep up if Derek Anderson is forced to start for a second consecutive game.
Prediction ATS: New Orleans
Kansas City Chiefs (+1) at Oakland Raiders
Going 4-1 with three wins on the road, Oakland has proven to be at least as good as Kansas City. The Raiders should be favored by a field goal, and gamblers can get great value by laying just one point. The Chiefs have a decent defense, but they’ve struggled against good offenses, allowing 27 points to San Diego and 43 points to Pittsburgh. They might give up 30 points to the NFL’s No.4 ranked offense, and Alex Smith and Co. won’t be able to keep up.
Prediction ATS: Oakland
Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) at Seattle Seahawks
After their 4-1 start, it might be time to recognize that the Falcons are a legitimate contender to reach the Super Bowl. Atlanta has put together an impressive resume with wins over last year’s conference champions and Oakland, who would be undefeated if it wasn’t for their loss to the Falcons. Atlanta’s No.1 ranked offense got the better of Denver’s elite defense in Week 5, and even if the Falcons can’t beat the Seahawks, they should be able to remain competitive.
Prediction ATS: Atlanta
Dallas Cowboys (+4) at Green Bay Packers
After cruising past the Bengals in Week 5, the Cowboys have proven to be a legitimate contender to win the NFC East. Dak Prescott has been terrific, and Dallas’ defense has improved from a year ago. Green Bay is 3-1, but haven’t looked like the Super Bowl favorite that many believe them to be. Aaron Rodgers continues to put up average numbers, and even if the Packers win, it might not be by more than a field goal.
Prediction ATS: Dallas
Indianapolis Colts (+3) at Houston Texans
The Colts are awful, and the only reason why they have any chance to make the playoffs is because they play in the NFL’s worst division. Houston isn’t much better, but they match up well with Indianapolis, who might have the league’s worst offensive line. It’s been a struggle to keep Andrew Luck upright all season, and he’s been sacked a league-high 20 times. The Texans’ defensive front isn’t the same now that J.J. Watt is done for the season, but it’s better than most, and it could wreak havoc on Indianapolis throughout the game.
Prediction ATS: Houston
New York Jets (+7.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have lost three games because of struggles on offense, but that should be remedied against the Jets. New York has the worst opponents’ passer rating in football, and they’ll have trouble slowing down a returning Carson Palmer. It could be just the opposite for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who goes up against the NFL’s No.8 ranked defense as the NFL’s worst-rated passer.
Prediction ATS: Arizona
Season Record: 38-39