Retail Sales, Manufacturing And Trifecta Of Inflation Data: Economic Events For June 11-15

This week's data releases could reignite hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon provide more policy stimulus. May's producer price index and consumer price index should show that inflationary pressures are easing, with the latter falling below the Fed's 2 percent target rate. Retail sales and industrial production figures for May are likely to come in on the soft side, as well.

The Bank of Japan will likely stand pat at its June 14-15 monetary policy meeting.

In Europe, the main data releases are industrial production, harmonized index of consumer prices inflation across Europe, and UK external trade. The Swiss National Bank should keep interest rates on hold at its policy meeting on Thursday. Market sentiment will still likely be much affected by the upcoming Greek election.

In emerging markets, central banks will meet in Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Chile and Russia. Brazil retail sales will also provide better indication of growth in the slowing economy.

Below are entries on the economic calendar from June 11 to June 15. All listed times are EDT.

Monday

12:00 p.m. -- Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart (voter) speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy to the Tennessee Bankers Association.

12:00 p.m. -- San Francisco Fed President John Williams (voter) delivers welcoming remarks at the district bank's conference on Asian banking and finance.

6:00 p.m. -- Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto (voter) gives brief remarks on Improving Education Attainment.

Non-U.S.

Spain -- International Monetary Fund publishes Spanish banking system report.

Finland -- IMF reviews Finnish economy.

E27 -- European Commission Vice President Olli Rehn speaks at European Parliament in Strasbourg, France.

China -- May M2 money-supply and new-loans data

France -- April industrial production

Italy -- Q1 GDP (final release)

Tuesday

8:30 a.m. -- Import prices are expected to drop sharply in May, contracting 1.2 percent after a 0.5 percent fall in April. Most of the decline reflects a steep drop in the petroleum component, as Brent crude prices tumbled more than 8 percent during the month. The recent gain in U.S. dollar, due to global flight-to-safety flows, should also dampen import price gains. Export prices are likely to decline by 0.2 percent in May, following a 0.4 percent increase in April.

11:30 a.m. -- Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo delivers a speech titled Shadow Banking After the Financial Crisis at the San Francisco Fed's conference on Asian banking and finance.

2:00 p.m. -- Economists look for the May Treasury budget statement to show a deficit of $107.5 billion, compared with a deficit of $57.6 billion in the year-ago period.

Non-U.S.

Indonesia -- Bank interest policy rate for June.

Italy -- Prime Minister Mario Monti speaks to Switzerland President Widmer-Schlumpf on tax covenant in Rome.

Germany -- Chancellor Angela Merkel, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and European Central Bank executive board member Joerg Asmussen speaks at CDU Economic Council.

India -- April industrial production

France -- Q1 nonfarm payrolls (final release)

UK -- April industrial output

UK -- April manufacturing output

Portugal -- May HICP

Japan -- April core machinery orders

Wednesday

7:00 a.m. -- MBA mortgage index for the week ending June 9

8:30 a.m. -- Retail sales are expected to decline 0.2 percent in May, owing to a sharp contraction in gasoline sales and weak auto sales. Excluding autos, economists expect retail sales to be flat in May.

8:30 a.m. -- Producer prices are likely to fall by 0.7 percent in May, after a 0.2 percent decline in April. This reflects the decline in wholesale gasoline and fuel oil prices during the month. On an annualized basis, economists see headline PPI inflation dropping to 1.1 percent. With oil prices falling further since May and declines in agricultural prices still to feed through, producer prices should show further declines soon. Some anticipate that the annual PPI inflation rate could dip into negative territory in the second half of 2012. Stripping out food and energy, core PPI should rise 0.2 percent again in May, holding the annual core PPI inflation rate steady at 2.8 percent.

10:00 a.m. -- The April business inventory report will likely show an increase of 0.3 percent.

10:30 a.m. -- Crude inventories

Non-U.S.

Germany -- Chancellor Merkel and opposition leaders discuss fiscal pact, financial tax and growth.

Thailand -- Benchmark interest rate for June

New Zealand -- June Reserve Bank of New Zealand official cash rate

France -- May HICP, CPI

Germany -- May HICP, CPI (both are final releases)

Spain -- May HICP (final release)

Italy -- May HICP, CPI (both are final releases)

E17 -- April industrial production

Thursday

8:30 a.m. -- Initial jobless claims will likely fall slightly to 375,000 in the week ending June 9, from 377,000 recorded in the prior week. Jobless claims data has essentially been moving sideways since February, showing only a moderate recovery in the labor market.

8:30 a.m. -- Consumer prices in May should fall by 0.2 percent after a flat reading in April. Plummeting gasoline prices mean that the headline CPI inflation rate should drop to 1.9 percent in May -- its first print below the Fed's 2 percent target rate in 16 months. Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI is expected to rise another 0.2 percent in May, or 2.2 percent over the prior year.

8:30 a.m. -- Economists look for a current account deficit of $132.4 billion for the first quarter of 2012, compared with a deficit of $124.11 billion at the end of last year.

Non-U.S.

France -- President Francois Hollande, Italy Prime Minister Mario Monti and Italy President Giorgio Napolitano meet in Rome.

Finland -- Central Bank Governor Erkki Liikanen speaks at Bank of Finland briefing.

Switzerland -- June interest rate announcement

E17 -- ECB publishes June bulletin.

Germany -- Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Junckers speak at ZEW in Germany.

Germany -- Chancellor Merkel holds regular meeting with German state leaders.

Finland -- May HICP

Austria -- May HICP

E17 -- Q1 labor cost

E17 -- May HICP (final release)

Friday

8:30 a.m. -- Economists expect the Empire State Manufacturing Index to drop to 14 in June from 17.1 in May. The gauge for executives' optimism for the next six months likely have darkened on weak payroll numbers, eurozone woes and a looming year-end fiscal cliff at home.

9:00 a.m. -- U.S. net long-term Treasury International Capital flows for April

9:15 a.m. -- Industrial production will likely remain unchanged in May, following a 1.1 percent gain in April. This should leave the capacity utilization rate at 79.2 percent.

9:50 a.m. -- The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which is highly sensitive to conditions in financial markets, will likely moderate in June to 77.5, after climbing to 79.3 in May -- its highest level since the onset of the financial crisis. Equity markets have moved lower in recent weeks, while volatility has risen.

Non-U.S.

Japan -- Bank of Japan June target rate

G-20 -- G-20 deputies meeting at Los Cabos, San Lucas, Mexico (to June 17)

Russia -- Overnight deposit rate and overnight repo rate for June

E17 -- ECB President Mario Draghi speaks at the ECB and Its Watchers Conference in Frankfurt.

E17 -- ECB executive board member Peter Praet speaks at the ECB and Its Watchers Conference' in Frankfurt.

E17 -- Q1 employment

E17 -- April trade balance

UK -- April visible trade balance

Argentina -- Q1 GDP

Source: Central banks, European Commission, Reuters, Market News, Barclays Capital, Bank of America Merrill Lynch