Oil could potentially soar up to $200 within the next two years as part of a super-spike driven by slowing growth in oil supplies, investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a research note on Tuesday.
Goldman Sachs U.S.-based analyst Arjun Murti said the energy crisis could be coming as a lack of adequate supply growth was becoming more apparent.
The possibility of $150-$200 per barrel seems increasingly likely over the next six to 24 months, he said.
We believe the current energy crisis may be coming to a head, as a lack of adequate supply growth is becoming apparent, Goldman said
Murti noted that the spare capacity of the OPEC to cushion against unexpected supply shocks was very low. Last month, OPEC president Chakib Khelil warned oil could reach $200 a barrel as well. The number of oil option contracts betting on oil hitting $200 a barrel in December has tripled since the beginning of the year.
Crude oil for June delivery traded as high as $122.73 a barrel in electronic trading Tuesday. It closed out the regular trading session at $121.84 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $1.87, or 1.6 percent. The previous record close was Monday's $119.97.
The contract has gained a total of $9.32, or 8.3 percent since Thursday.
Predicting the ultimate peak in oil prices and the remaining duration of the up-cycle remains a major uncertainty, the report said.
In our view, a gradual rally in prices is likely to be longer lasting than a sharp, sudden spike, the note written by U.S.-based analyst Arjun Murti said.