Wall Street Week Ahead: Quest for the Golden Cross

January has turned out strong for equities with just two trading days to go. If you're afraid to miss the ride, there's still time to jump in. You just might want to wear a neck brace.

The new year lured buyers into growth-related sectors, the ones that were more beaten down last year. The economy is getting better, but not dramatically. Earnings are beating expectations, but at a lower rate than in recent quarters. Nothing too bad is coming out of Europe's debt crisis - and nothing good, either - at least not yet.

No one item is a major positive, but collectively, it's been enough to tilt it towards net buying, said John Schlitz, chief market technician at Instinet in New York.

Still, comparatively weak volume and a six-month high hit this week make some doubt that the gains are sustainable.

But then there's the golden cross.

Many market skeptics take notice when this technical indicator, a holy grail of sorts for many technicians, appears on the horizon.

As early as Monday, the rising 50-day moving average of the S&P 500 could tick above its rising 200-day moving average. This occurrence -- known as a golden cross -- means the medium-term momentum is increasingly bullish. You have a good chance of making money in the next six months if you put it to work in large-cap stocks.

In the last 50 years, according to data compiled by Birinyi Associates, a golden cross on the S&P 500 has augured further gains six months ahead eight of 10 times. The average gain has been 6.6 percent.

That means the benchmark is on solid footing to not only hold onto the 14 percent advance over the last nine weeks, but to flirt with 1,400, a level it hasn't hit since mid-2008.

The gains, as expected, would not be in a straight line. But any weakness could be used by long-term investors as buying opportunities.

The cross is an intermediate bullish event, Schlitz said. You have to interpret it as constructive, but I caution people to take a bullish stance, if they have a short-term horizon.

Greece, U.S. Employment, and Momentum

Less than halfway into the earnings season and with Greek debt talks over the weekend, payrolls data next week, and the S&P 500 near its highest level since July, there's plenty of room for something to go wrong. If that happens, the market could easily give back some of its recent advance.

But the benchmark's recent rally and momentum shift allow for a pullback before the technical picture deteriorates.

We bounced off 1,325, which is resistance. We're testing 1,310, which should be support. We are stuck in that range, said Ken Polcari, managing director at ICAP Equities in New York.

If over the weekend, Greece comes out with another big nothing, then you will see further weakness next week, he said. A 1 [percent] or 2 percent pullback isn't out of the question or out of line.

On Friday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed their fourth consecutive week of gains, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped after three straight weeks of gains.

For the day, the Dow fell 74.17 points, or 0.58 percent, to close at 12,660.46, the S&P 500 fell 2.10 points, or 0.16 percent, to end at 1,316.33, and the Nasdaq rose 11.27 points, or 0.40 percent, to finish at 2,816.55.

For the week, the Dow was down 0.47 percent, while the S&P 500 was up 0.07 percent and the Nasdaq was up 1.07 percent.

A Data-Packed Earnings Week

Next week is filled with heavy-hitting data on the housing, manufacturing, and employment areas of the economy.

Personal income and consumption figures on Monday will be followed by the S&P/Case-Shiller home prices index, consumer confidence numbers, and the Chicago purchasing managers' index on Tuesday. Wednesday will bring the Institute for Supply Management index on U.S. manufacturing and the first of three readings on the labor market. namely, the ADP private-sector employment report. Jobless claims on Thursday will give way on Friday to the U.S. government's nonfarm-payrolls report. The forecast calls for a net gain of 150,000 jobs in January, according to economists polled by Reuters.

Another hectic earnings week will kick into gear with almost one-fifth of the S&P 500 components posting quarterly results. The Exxon Mobil Corp., Amazon.com Inc., United Parcel Service Inc., Pfizer Inc., and the Kellogg Co. are among the names most likely to grab the headlines.

With almost 200 S&P 500 companies' reports in so far, about 59 percent have beaten earnings expectations -- down from about 70 percent in recent quarters.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak and Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Jan Paschal)