Forget that old adage about counting chickens before they've hatched. With just over two weeks until Election Day, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has released a map showing which states he thinks he'll win on Nov. 8.
Trump emailed his supporters Monday to share a map of the United States dominated by red, the color associated with the GOP.
"Donald Trump must reach 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. We’ve outlined a map to show where we currently stand as well as the possible paths forward to win," campaign manager Kellyanne Conway wrote in the email. "Over the past month, polls have shown us winning Iowa, Ohio, Maine, Florida, Nevada and North Carolina. If we maintain our leads in those six states, we can reliably claim 266 electoral votes. Hillary can claim 193."
The map doesn't quite line up with some pundits' projections. Politico's battleground states analysis showed Monday that Trump was indeed leading in Iowa and Ohio, but Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton was polling better than him in Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, three states that are considered essential for Trump to win.
Other states, like Virginia and New Hampshire, were labeled "too close to call" in Trump's email. But data averaged by RealClear Politics found the former first lady was beating the billionaire by about 10 percentage points in Virginia, the state where her running mate, Tim Kaine, formerly served as governor. New Hampshire was closer, with Clinton up by about 7 points. In the past three elections, former Democratic nominees John Kerry and President Barack Obama each carried New Hampshire.
Sabato's Crystal Ball, which is led by and named after the University of Virginia's Larry Sabato, released a map of its own last week. Staffers wrote in a blog post that Clinton was poised to win 352 electoral votes to Trump's 173.
"As we reassess our Electoral College ratings, we don't think any new states are moving toward Trump at this point, and there are some surprising conservative places where he is registering very thin, soft support," the Sabato group said. "Clinton's embarrassment of Electoral College riches may well produce poverty for America’s presidential billionaire."