Americans Are Skeptical of Trump’s Promise of $5,000 Checks if Republicans Win the Midterms, New Poll Shows

Americans appear deeply skeptical that President Donald Trump will make good on his promise to send $5,000 checks to adults if Republicans retain control of Congress in November, according to new polling.

An Economist/YouGov survey found that only 21% of registered voters believed Trump would "definitely" or "probably" follow through on the $5,000 payments. By comparison, 57% said they doubted the checks would actually be delivered.

The picture was similarly stark among likely midterm voters. About 61% said Trump would probably or definitely not deliver the payments, while just 22% believed he would. Voters were much more evenly divided over whether they actually wanted the checks, with 43% supporting the proposal and 45% opposing it.

Trump unveiled the proposed $5,000 "Trump Dividend" during the Republican Party's midterm convention in Dallas in September.

Trump has been emphatic about the promise. After House Speaker Mike Johnson said the payments would require congressional approval, Trump told reporters that the $5,000 checks were "going to happen, 100%." Johnson said Congress would work to find consensus on the proposal if Republicans retain their majorities.

Estimates have put the cost above $1 trillion, with some calculations exceeding $1.2 trillion depending on eligibility. Trump and administration officials have pointed to the strength of the economy and government revenue as possible ways to finance the payments, while Vice President JD Vance has suggested tariff revenue could help fund them.

But the proposal would still need Congress. Johnson has contradicted Trump's suggestion that the executive branch could distribute the money without lawmakers authorizing the spending, saying congressional action would be necessary.

The $5,000 pledge is also only one part of a broader push by Trump to put checks directly into Americans' hands before the midterms. His administration is distributing $500 health insurance rebate checks to nearly 1 million Americans who buy coverage through the federal Affordable Care Act marketplace.

Trump has also announced $90 payments for more than 20 million eligible Medicare beneficiaries to offset premium costs. Those payments are expected to arrive in October and are being financed through the Medicare Improvement Fund.

Yet polling suggests larger cash promises are not necessarily winning over voters. An NBC poll found just 21% of voters said they would be more likely to support a midterm candidate who backed Trump's $5,000 plan, while 46% said such support would make them less likely to vote for that candidate. Another 33% said it would make no difference.

The resistance is even stronger in Wisconsin, one of the country's key political battlegrounds. A Marquette Law School poll found 70% of registered voters there opposed the $5,000 checks, while only 29% supported them. Fifty-nine percent said the payments would hurt the U.S. economy, compared with 19% who believed they would help.