Bears vs. Lions 2018 Prediction: Why Detroit Will Upset Chicago On Thanksgiving

The Detroit Lions will host the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving for the first time in four years. After beating their division rivals on the holiday in 2014, the Lions are underdogs in Week 12.

Chicago is a four-point road favorite, according to the latest betting odds at OddsShark. It’s the biggest underdog Detroit has been on Thanksgiving since they hosted Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in 2011.

It was only a few weeks ago that the Bears manhandled the Lions at Soldier Field, winning 34-22 in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated. Chicago took a 26-0 lead before cruising to a victory and virtually eliminating Detroit from the NFC North race.

The Lions bounced back with a one-point win over the Carolina Panthers at home in Week 11. The Bears had one of the week’s most impressive victories, defeating the Minnesota Vikings 25-20 and extending their first-place lead.

Ever since losing consecutive games when Khalil Mack was dealing with an ankle injury, Chicago has been utterly dominant. They’re on a four-game winning streak, outscoring their opponents 125-61.

Matthew Stafford was sacked six times at Soldier Field, one week after he was sacked 10 times in a loss to the Vikings. Chicago is fifth in the NFL with 32 sacks, despite Mack missing two games, and they should have another big afternoon Thursday.

If this game were scheduled for a Sunday, it’d make sense to expect the Bears to win easily, once again. The short rest, however, could open the door for an upset.

Only two road teams have won on “Thursday Night Football” in 2018. Chicago faces a more difficult task than any other team playing on a Thursday this year, considering they just played Sunday night and are facing a 12:30 p.m. EDT start time.

Detroit didn’t have to travel at all after playing at home in Week 11. The players that have been with the Lions for a few seasons are used to competing early on Thanksgiving each year.

Matthew Stafford is set to make his eighth straight Thanksgiving start. Since Detroit was blown out by Green Bay in 2011, Stafford has led the Lions to a 4-2 record on Turkey Day, throwing 15 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. One of those Detroit losses came in overtime. The Vikings beat the Lions by a touchdown last year on their way toward earning the NFC’s No.2 seed.

Chicago quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has never played on Thanksgiving, let alone on a Thursday. He was picked off two times Sunday night and posted a passer rating of 61.9. In his only two primetime games, the second-year player has 365 passing yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions. Trubisky has four touchdown passes, three picks and an 87.6 passer rating on the road this season.

As inconsistent as the Lions have been, they’ve managed to defeat Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton at home. Don’t be shocked to see Detroit pull off another upset at Ford Field.

Prediction: Detroit over Chicago, 23-16