KEY POINTS

  • Willy Woo points to decline in supply as a trigger for a 2021 bull run
  • A similar scenario happened just before the bull run of 2017
  • Bitcoin is on the cusp of breaching past $20,000 this month

Some bullish analyses for Bitcoin are predicting a rally toward $100,000 by December 2021. One popular analyst is more optimistic about the benchmark cryptocurrency and says even $200,000 by that period should be considered a "conservative bet." 

In a series of tweets, on-chain analyst Willy Woo said his model sees Bitcoin going up to $300,000 by December next year. The metric, Top Cap, used to deliver the forecast is experimental but has accurately matched the peak prices in the past, Cointelegraph said.

The chart suggests a peak price of around $87,000 before the end of 2020 and an average price of $7,456. The latter figure, Woo said, is the average price that the market has paid for their coins. 

Citing the data from Glassnode, Woo said this re-accumulation period has coincided with the decreasing number of Bitcoin in cryptocurrency exchanges. A second chart shared by Woo marked the decline in the supply of Bitcoin six months before the bull run that began in January 2017. This peaked just below $20,000 by December of that year. 

A similar scenario can be observed this year. The chart also shows a decline in BTC in exchanges from January 2021.

Woo's price prediction is higher than what the Stock-to-Flow (S2F), created by Twitter user PlanB, has estimated. Woo said the S2F model uses cumulative average price. 

In June 2020, Bloomberg made a bold prediction that Bitcoin would revisit its all-time high levels by December 2020. The benchmark cryptocurrency closed Wednesday at $19,225, putting the dominant cryptocurrency above $19,000 again. This marks the third time Bitcoin is above the level, which many analysts say must be sustained in order to break past $20,000. Bitcoin actually reached a new all-time high two days ago, according to price aggregator Coingecko. But the industry sees $20,000 as the perceived all-time high that must be breached.

bitcoin A file photo of a visual representation of the digital Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin on October 23, 2017 in London, England. Photo: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images