Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Game 3: Prediction, Betting Odds, Preview For 2018 ALCS

The Houston Astros will host the Boston Red Sox in Game 3 of the 2018 ALCS Tuesday night. With the series tied 1-1, the defending champs look to take one step closer toward returning to the World Series after splitting two games at Fenway Park.

Despite entering the series without home-field advantage and five fewer regular-season wins, the Astros were favored to reach the Fall Classic. The betting odds remain in their favor as the two teams meet at Minute Maid Park for the first time in this year’s playoffs.

Houston is a -140 favorite in Game 3, according to OddsShark. Boston has +120 odds to take control of the series and guarantee that they won’t be eliminated on the road.

The Red Sox went undefeated on the road in the ALDS, defeating the New York Yankees twice at Yankee Stadium. Boston cruised to a 16-1 win when Nathan Eovaldi started Game 3 of that series in the Bronx, and he hopes to repeat that success in Houston. Dallas Keuchel will start for Houston after allowing two runs in five innings against the Cleveland Indians in the Astros’ final game of the ALDS.

Eovaldi has pitched well of late, pitching to a 1.33 ERA since Sept. 3. Keuchel had a 4.65 ERA in September, and he has a 5.40 ERA in his last four postseason starts.

Don’t expect either starting pitcher to have an outing like Eovaldi did against the Yankees when he surrendered just five baserunners and one run in seven innings. Houston scored 12 runs in two games at Fenway Park, and Boston has the best offense in baseball.

If the final few innings are going to be decided by the bullpens, the Astros will have a significant edge.

Boston’s bullpen did get the job done in relief of David Price Sunday night, giving up just one run in 4.1 innings of work. A similar performance on the road is unlikely, especially against this Astros’ teams.

When the Red Sox had a chance to go into the bottom of the ninth inning of Game 1 trailing the Astros by just one run, Houston scored four runs off reliever Brandon Workman to put the contest away. In both Game 2 and Game 3 of the ALDS, the Astros mounted a comeback in the sixth inning or later.

Houston is hitting .274 with a .929 OPS this postseason. The Astros set a record in Game 2 with at least one home run in 14 consecutive playoff games.

Craig Kimbrel has played with fire in all three of his playoff appearances, allowing at least one run and letting the tying run reach home plate each time he’s taken the mound. Boston’s closer might not be so lucky to escape another rocky outing if Alex Cora goes to him in a big spot Tuesday night.

The Astros are swinging the bats better than the Red Sox, and their bullpen has a 1.02 ERA in 17.2 playoff innings. Playing at home, where they’ve gone 10-1 in postseason games since last year, Houston should find a way to jump ahead in this series.

Game 3 Prediction: Houston over Boston, 6-4