The Green Bay Packers host the Carolina Panthers Sunday afternoon in one of just three Week 10 games that feature a pair of winning teams. Aaron Rodgers and Co. are favored at Lambeau Field, though the point spread has seen significant movement over the last few days.

The betting line opened at seven points, according to OddsShark, but Carolina is only a 4.5-point underdog as of Tuesday afternoon. The over/under is 47.

Week 9 caused a shift in the betting odds. The Panthers cruised past the Tennessee Titans 30-20. The Packers were upset on the road against the Los Angeles Chargers, losing 26-11 in a one-sided contest.

Green Bay had been among the NFL’s hottest teams with a four-game winning streak. The Packers have only been defeated twice this season.

The Chargers sacked Rodgers three times and held the Packers to 184 yards of total offense. With the quarterback failing to put up MVP-caliber numbers the way he had in previous weeks, Green Bay’s defense was unable to pick up the slack.

It’s becoming apparent that Green Bay’s strong start on defense to begin the year was largely a product of their competition. The Packers gave up 35 total points in Weeks 1-3 in wins over the Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos. Chicago and Denver rank 27th and 28th, respectively, in scoring offense.

Over the last six games, Green Bay has surrendered 25.6 points per contest. None of the Packers’ opponents during that span have scored fewer than 22 points in a game.

The Packers are down to 25th in opponents’ yards per play. Green Bay ranks 26th in total defense. The Packers have just 10 sacks in their last six games.

The run game has been the Achilles heel of Green Bay’s defense. Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler had 32 rushes for 150 yards for the Chargers in Week 9. The Packers allowed the Philadelphia Eagles’ running backs to rack up 163 yards on 27 carries in their only other loss of the season.

Christian McCaffrey Carolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey scores a touchdown at Bank of America Stadium on Oct. 7, 2018, in Charlotte, North Carolina. Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Look for the Panthers to feed Christian McCaffrey early and often against the defense that ranks 25th in opponents’ yards per carry. Carolina’s running back was easily the best player on the field in the team’s win over Tennessee, rushing 24 times for 146 yards and two scores. He also had three catches for 20 yards and a touchdown.

McCaffrey has been so productive in 2019 that he’s managed to be the only non-quarterback in the MVP conversation. He’s second in the NFL with 881 rushing yards, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. With 363 receiving yards, McCaffrey could threaten to break the league’s record for yards from scrimmage in a season.

Carolina has needed McCaffrey to put up big numbers with Kyle Allen coming back down to earth. After throwing no interceptions in his first four starts as Cam Newton’s replacement, Allen has been picked off four times in the last two games. Allen has a mediocre 87.8 passer rating and hasn’t surpassed the 232-yard mark in five straight games.

Much like Green Bay, Carolina’s defense hasn’t been as effective in recent weeks, but the unit still ranks 12th in opponents yards’ per play. The Panthers are holding opposing quarterbacks to a 77.5 passer rating. The team leads the NFL with 34 sacks.

Rodgers has been sacked eight times in the last two games.

Everything went wrong for the Panthers in their blowout loss to the San Francisco 49ers two weeks ago. They were defeated by nine total points in their other two losses.

This is a game that could be decided by a field goal in either direction.

Prediction: Carolina over Green Bay, 27-24