Democrats’ Senate Path Expands Into Texas and Kansas Ahead of the Midterms: Poll

Democrats appear to have a broader opening to reclaim the Senate as competitive races in Texas and Kansas expand their opportunities beyond traditional battlegrounds, according to new polling.

Surveys conducted by CNN suggest an increasingly difficult environment for Republicans before the November 3 midterm elections, with President Donald Trump's approval ratings negative even in states he carried comfortably in 2024. However, Democrats still face the demanding task of gaining a net four seats to take control.

Three of the four seats surveyed are held by Republicans. Winning those contests while holding Michigan would therefore leave Democrats needing another pickup elsewhere, assuming they retain their other seats.

In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 49% to 43% among likely voters. A Democratic victory would break three decades without a statewide win for the party and provide a pickup in territory long considered reliably Republican. Talarico's support includes 63% of Latino likely voters and 64% of voters of color overall. Among likely voters of color who backed Trump in 2024, 22% now support the Democrat.

His advantage also reflects differences in how voters view the candidates. Talarico has a substantially stronger favorability rating, and most supporters describe their choice as support for him rather than opposition to Paxton. About one-quarter of Republican voters view Paxton unfavorably, according to CNN's account.

Kansas presents another potential opening, although the poll finds no clear leader. Democrat Adam Hamilton receives 49% support to Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's 45%, even as likely voters say they would prefer Republican control of the Senate.

Hamilton draws roughly 12% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters, the strongest crossover support for any Democrat in the four surveys. Marshall's unpopularity appears central: A majority view him negatively, and 59% of Hamilton supporters say opposition to the incumbent primarily motivates their vote.

In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 49% to 42%, improving his position since CNN's polling around Labor Day found no clear leader. El-Sayed now attracts 95% of Democratic likely voters, up from 90%. Meanwhile, Rogers' unfavorable rating has risen to 50%, compared with 42% in early September, suggesting the Republican has struggled as Democrats consolidate behind their nominee.

Maine remains competitive despite its status as an early Democratic pickup target. Democrat Troy Jackson receives 49% support against Republican Sen. Susan Collins' 45%, with no clear leader.

Collins is the only Republican senator seeking reelection this year in a state that voted Democratic in 2024. She nevertheless draws support from 21% of voters who disapprove of Trump, a larger share than the other Republican Senate candidates surveyed. Her challenge remains substantial. Some 54% view her unfavorably. Jackson's ratings are also negative, with 46% unfavorable and 39% favorable.

Late movement could reshape every contest. Outside Maine, at least one in eight likely voters say they could change their choice. In Texas and Kansas, at least 60% of those movable voters are Republicans or Republican-leaning independents, giving GOP candidates a potential source of support.

The surveys were conducted online and by telephone on October 20-27 in Michigan and Texas and Oct. 20-26 in Kansas and Maine. Likely voter samples ranged from 768 to 923, with margins of sampling error between 4.2 and 4.7 percentage points.