Iran’s Economy Keeps Grappling Under the U.S. Blockade. Bessent Said it Will Shrink By More Than 25%.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed that the Iranian economy will shrink by more than 25% as a result of the U.S. blockade of its ports and the ongoing war.

Speaking to Iran International, Bessent said the country is short on foreign currency and oil production is falling. "I would predict that from March of '26 until March of '27, the economy would contract more than 25 percent, which is more than the Soviet Union contracted after its collapse," he said.

Bessent went on to say that Iranians should "start stocking up on heating fuel" as there will be a "big heating fuel shortage."

"My advice to the Iranian people would be: don't pay your taxes because you're not going to get anything back from the government," he added.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said this month that the Islamic Regime is facing the most severe crisis since the 1979 revolution as the war with the U.S. continues.

"Never in the 48 years since the Islamic Revolution have we been under such pressure and faced such difficulties," Pezeshkian said when talking in a forum in Azerbaijan, of which he took part virtually.

The president went on to say that Attacks against the country infrastructure hit energy facilities and factories, calling for greater coordination to address issues taking place in the country's different provinces.

Washington said its blockade has prevented at least $25 billion in Iranian crude exports, while approximately $350 million in Iranian cryptocurrency assets have been frozen. Together, those measures are targeting both the country's main source of export income and a channel it has used to move money outside traditional banking networks.

Iran initially retained a financial cushion through crude that had already passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the blockade. Stored aboard tankers in international waters, those supplies allowed sales to continue even as restrictions disrupted fresh shipments.

That cushion has now largely disappeared. The depletion of floating inventories removes a temporary source of export earnings that helped Iran withstand the blockade.

Elsewhere, The Wall Street Journal reported that Iranian oil stored aboard tankers in Asian waters had been depleted by mid-October, citing analysts at commodities-data company Kpler. Those cargoes allowed Tehran to continue supplying Chinese refineries even while the U.S. blockade prevented replacement shipments from reaching overseas customers.